Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:34:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DE 0xded7…a510 crypto 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$39 (+2%) realized +$40 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate87%54W / 8L
Drawdown88%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day16.6pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% +$91
other 1% $0
tech 0% −$1
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+1.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 62 +12.2% +1.5% 87% 52% -5.2%
≤30d 62 +12.2% +1.5% 87% 52% -5.2%
≤90d 62 +12.2% +1.5% 87% 52% -5.2%
all 62 +12.2% +1.5% 87% 52% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.5% 52% -5.2%
10% -8.2% 32% -14.3%
15% -17.1% 24% -22.6%
20% -25.2% 16% -30.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +12% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$22 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.5 per $1 lost it wins $1.5
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$40
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses54 / 8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)62 / 63
History coverage7d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day16.6
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 24, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 23 $180 +$1 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 23 $150 +$6 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $170 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 23 $161 +$8 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 23 $30 +$8 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $25 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +8%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$3 +11%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +18%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +10%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +68%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$6 +22%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$5 +93%
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$4 +73%
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +68%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$1 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +26%
Solana Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$3 +57%
BNB Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +26%
XRP Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 23 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 23 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 23 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$10 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$7 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$19 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 23 $20 +$8 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $102 −$102 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 23 $101 +$12 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 23 $100 +$4 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$43 +83%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 23 $26 +$21 +80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $5 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $25 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $100 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 100¢ $157 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 1h
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $25 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.50 · official $0.50 (match) · 167 history records