Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T21:26:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
DE 0xded4…07d7 sports 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 234d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$1,311 (-34%) realized −$1,294 · open −$17
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$349per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,223
7 days+$1,676
14 days+$1,676
30 days+$702
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 85% −$1,266
other 8% +$1,206
crypto 7% −$191
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +182.1% +155.2% 67% 67% +110.4%
≤30d 4 +111.5% +91.4% 50% 50% +18.8%
≤90d 5 +69.2% +53.1% 40% 40% -17.9%
all 9 +24.5% +12.6% 33% 33% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.6% 33% -15.2%
10% +1.9% 33% -23.3%
15% -8.0% 33% -30.7%
20% -17.0% 22% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$660 vs −$369 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$83
Realized−$1,294
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage234d
Avg bet$349
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: France 3 - 0 Iraq? Yes 16¢ 22¢ $50 $67 +$17 (+34%)
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Iraq? Yes $50 $16 −$34 (-69%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria? Jun 22 $205 +$1,223 +596%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Sweden? Jun 20 $51 −$50 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,009 +$503 +50%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $991 −$974 -98%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 18 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on December 1? Dec 01 $200 −$108 -54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on December 1? Dec 01 $33 −$33 -100%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Nov 01 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Nov 01 $199 +$255 +128%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.88 · official $81.93 (match) · 21 history records