Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T21:48:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xdecf…caf2 sports 791 markets active 1h ago coverage 151d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$10,043 (-10%) realized −$10,043 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%380W / 411L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$240est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$246
7 days+$51
14 days−$534
30 days−$818
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% −$7,371
other 46% −$2,772
world 1% −$73
crypto 0% +$136
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +10.5% -0.1% 65% 65% -6.8%
≤30d 131 -7.4% -16.2% 50% 50% -12.9%
≤90d 333 -18.1% -25.9% 44% 40% -20.3%
all 791 -11.2% -19.7% 48% 44% -18.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 44% -18.0%
10% -27.3% 37% -25.9%
15% -34.4% 30% -33.0%
20% -40.8% 23% -39.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$92 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

151d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10,043
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses380 / 411
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$240
Open positions0
Markets (closed)791 / 791
History coverage151d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 791 Trades
no open positions (61 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $204 +$118 +58%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $76 +$128 +168%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $99 −$97 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $135 −$133 -99%
Belgium leading at halftime? Jun 21 $390 −$246 -63%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $203 −$174 -86%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $320 −$154 -48%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $97 +$21 +22%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $101 +$36 +36%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $351 +$113 +32%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $245 +$302 +123%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $199 +$47 +24%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $218 −$215 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $214 −$195 -91%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $313 +$179 +57%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $97 +$23 +24%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $169 +$142 +84%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $27 +$19 +72%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $173 +$48 +28%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $83 +$89 +107%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $73 −$72 -98%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 −$90 -89%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $120 −$117 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $59 −$58 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $152 −$94 -62%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $99 −$98 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $127 −$125 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $277 +$248 +89%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $151 +$126 +83%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $99 −$97 -98%
Spread: CF Universidad de Chile (-1.5) Jun 14 $138 −$136 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $104 +$133 +128%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$3 +88%
Will RS Berkane win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$99 -98%
Will SC Recife win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $179 −$177 -98%
EC Juventude leading at halftime? Jun 14 $101 +$79 +78%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $269 −$266 -99%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $278 −$205 -74%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $156 +$171 +109%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 AND Will Korea Republic win on 202 Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $48 +$6 +12%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $102 +$98 +97%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 10 $220 +$156 +71%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 10 $161 +$29 +18%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $101 +$61 +60%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 10 $79 −$50 -63%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 10 $50 +$29 +60%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $69 −$69 -100%
Will UD Almería vs. CD Castellón end in a draw? Jun 09 $191 −$184 -96%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 09 $104 +$34 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $322 1h
Bosnia-Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $204 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 93¢ $204 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 34¢ $76 2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 34¢ $99 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $135 3d
Belgium leading at halftime? SELL Yes 35¢ $135 3d
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $187 3d
Belgium leading at halftime? BUY Yes 49¢ $203 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 8¢ $28 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 43¢ $166 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 57¢ $203 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 81¢ $320 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $117 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $137 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $464 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 81¢ $97 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 73¢ $101 3d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $351 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $548 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $245 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 84¢ $246 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 3d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Ecuador 6¢ $19 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $199 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $199 3d
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Ecuador 66¢ $214 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 80¢ $97 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $313 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $312 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2062 history records