Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T10:50:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DE 0xdece…2aa3 other 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 210d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -0% what you keep after slip
Net edge-0%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate78%35W / 10L
Whale WR12%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$347per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$169now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$6
sports 26% +$6
economics 21% −$4
other 13% +$1
crypto 3% +$1
world 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +12.6% +1.9% 100% 25% -8.1%
≤30d 4 +12.6% +1.9% 100% 25% -8.1%
≤90d 16 +9.7% -0.7% 100% 19% -8.3%
all 45 +10.2% -0.3% 78% 18% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.3% 18% -9.5%
10% -9.9% 18% -18.2%
15% -18.6% 16% -26.1%
20% -26.5% 7% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
77% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 12% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +14% → late +7% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

210d coverage
Net worth$169
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses35 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)12%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)45 / 50
History coverage210d
Avg bet$347
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $106 $106 −$0 (-0%)
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $41 $41 −$0 (-0%)
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 98¢ 99¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+0%)
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Timberwolves Jun 20 $4 +$2 +50%
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? Jun 20 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 20 $26 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Heat vs. Raptors May 15 $2 +$1 +60%
Bulls vs. Wizards May 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? May 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? May 15 $135 +$1 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 09 $17 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Apr 09 $17 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 09 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 09 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Apr 09 $79 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 31 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 31 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 31 $35 $0 +0%
Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 13 $2,015 −$2 -0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $2,083 −$2 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 24? Mar 13 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 13 $21 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? Mar 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? Mar 13 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Mar 13 $41 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $1,898 −$2 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 15? Feb 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026? Feb 23 $11 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026 Feb 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026 Feb 23 $20 $0 +0%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 14 $2,020 −$2 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 14 $2,050 −$2 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Feb 14 $2,070 −$2 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Feb 14 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026? Feb 14 $1,967 $0 +0%
Wizards vs. Kings Jan 17 $8 +$2 +28%
Clippers vs. Raptors Jan 17 $1 +$1 +82%
Bulls vs. Nets Jan 17 $2 +$1 +47%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 17 $461 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 17 $1,571 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Warriors Jan 16 $1 $0 +43%
Pelicans vs. Pacers Jan 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Hornets vs. Lakers Jan 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jan 15 $1 +$3 +300%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 15 $53 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5,600 in November? Dec 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025? Dec 25 $34 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $106 1h
Will XRP reach $3.00 in June? BUY No 100¢ $41 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 1h
Spurs vs. Timberwolves BUY Spurs 66¢ $4 35d
Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $100 35d
Will Bitcoin dip to $30,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $20 35d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $26 35d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $11 35d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $135 71d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $15 71d
Heat vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 62¢ $2 71d
Bulls vs. Wizards BUY Bulls 70¢ $5 71d
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $23 80d
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $20 80d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $17 80d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $79 99d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $35 99d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $12 99d
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 99d
Will XRP reach $4.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $26 117d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on February 24? BUY No 100¢ $15 117d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $26 117d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 117d
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $17 125d
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from February 17 to February 24, 2026 BUY No 100¢ $20 125d
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $11 125d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $21 125d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $41 125d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on February 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 125d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 125d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $168.95 · official $168.95 (match) · 177 history records