Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:39:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xdecc…7ee9 world 96 markets active 1h ago coverage 271d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate35%33W / 60L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$2
14 days−$19
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$3
other 37% +$5
economics 9% $0
sports 3% −$1
politics 3% −$2
culture 1% $0
tech 1% +$1
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +2.3% -7.4% 40% 10% -9.2%
≤30d 34 +37.9% +24.7% 41% 12% -9.4%
≤90d 39 +30.5% +18.0% 44% 10% -9.4%
all 93 +13.0% +2.3% 35% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.3% 5% -9.4%
10% -7.5% 3% -18.1%
15% -16.5% 2% -26.0%
20% -24.7% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.12 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

271d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses33 / 60
Open positions3
Markets (closed)93 / 96
History coverage271d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 93 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 33¢ 33¢ $33 $33 +$0 (+0%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 72¢ 72¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? Yes 7¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-57%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $43 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 19 $84 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $93 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $101 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $93 −$1 -1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $103 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $14 +$4 +25%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 15 $88 +$1 +1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $18 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $6 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 13 $97 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $92 −$26 -28%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $102 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $233 +$3 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $39 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $78 +$2 +3%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $110 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $4 $0 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $231 −$2 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $163 +$19 +12%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 05 $113 −$2 -2%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $202 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 02 $3 $0 -9%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $25 +$5 +21%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $20 −$4 -21%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 25 $165 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $98 +$4 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $4 $0 -3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 24 $80 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $60 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $3 $0 +1%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? May 23 $66 +$1 +2%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $90 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $565 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $564 +$1 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $682 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Mar 24 $15 −$3 -16%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 31 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Jan 31 $23 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Dec 13 $52 +$1 +3%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Dec 13 $25 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $7 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $15 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-12-02? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $14 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $133 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $22 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 33¢ $33 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $43 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $43 26h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 21¢ $29 39h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 23¢ $32 41h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $6 47h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $86 47h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $93 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $69 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $32 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $101 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 80¢ $36 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 80¢ $56 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 81¢ $93 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $103 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $103 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $0 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $14 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 39¢ $53 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 38¢ $50 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $3 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $42 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $45 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $0 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $17 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $53 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 89¢ $20 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.28 · official $33.00 · 476 history records