Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:03:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DE 0xdeca…0a65 crypto 229 markets active 2h ago coverage 552d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+0%) realized +$6 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate96%217W / 10L
Whale WR96%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$613per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,187now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days−$60
14 days−$32
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% +$76
tech 8% +$7
other 2% −$107
economics 1% +$22
politics 0% +$3
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -37.2% -43.2% 62% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 27 -10.8% -19.3% 89% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 69 -4.1% -13.3% 94% 0% -9.4%
all 227 -1.6% -11.0% 96% 0% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 0% -9.5%
10% -19.5% 0% -18.2%
15% -27.3% 0% -26.1%
20% -34.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 96% (≥$1,131) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$29 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

552d coverage
Net worth$1,187
Realized+$6
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses217 / 10
Whale WR (big bets)96%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)227 / 229
History coverage552d
Avg bet$613
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 227 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,185 $1,187 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $1,183 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $1,178 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $1,175 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 18 $84 −$83 -99%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $1,252 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,246 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $1,244 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,237 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $1,230 +$7 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $1,227 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $1,222 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,219 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,218 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $1,211 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $1,209 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $1,206 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $1,202 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $1,200 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $1,197 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1,195 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $1,191 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 31 $1,188 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? May 30 $1,186 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? May 27 $1,180 +$5 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 24? May 25 $1,179 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? May 23 $1,178 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? May 21 $1,174 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 18? May 19 $1,173 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? May 17 $1,172 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 13? May 14 $1,169 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? May 12 $1,169 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 10? May 11 $1,167 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 8? May 09 $1,166 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 07 $1,165 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? May 06 $1,164 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 4? May 05 $1,163 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 3? May 04 $1,160 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 1? May 02 $1,160 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 29? Apr 30 $1,160 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $1,152 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 24? Apr 26 $1,151 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 23? Apr 23 $1,150 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on April 22? Apr 22 $1,149 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 21? Apr 21 $1,147 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 20? Apr 20 $1,146 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 18? Apr 19 $1,144 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 17? Apr 17 $1,144 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on April 16? Apr 16 $1,143 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $1,185 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,183 24h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $1,178 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,175 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 0¢ $0 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 0¢ $0 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 0¢ $0 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 0¢ $0 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 0¢ $0 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 0¢ $0 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 0¢ $0 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 0¢ $0 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 0¢ $0 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 0¢ $0 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 0¢ $0 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 0¢ $0 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 0¢ $0 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 0¢ $0 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 0¢ $0 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 0¢ $0 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 0¢ $0 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 0¢ $0 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 0¢ $0 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 0¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 3 Korea Republic? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06- BUY 12¢ $3 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 0¢ $0 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 0¢ $1 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 0¢ $0 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY No 0¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,187.38 · official $1,187.38 (match) · 657 history records