Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T21:14:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

DE 0xdec9…17e8 sports 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)

Total PnL −$1,324 (-16%) realized −$1,324 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip

Net edge-2%after slip

Net WR38%break-even

Win rate38%9W / 15L

Whale WR17%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$343per market

Trades / day12.2pace

Fees−$144est.

Kalshi-fit71%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +38%

net ROI/market (all)+6.1%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	24	+17.3%	+6.1%	38%	38%	-24.4%
≤30d	24	+17.3%	+6.1%	38%	38%	-24.4%
≤90d	24	+17.3%	+6.1%	38%	38%	-24.4%
all	24	+17.3%	+6.1%	38%	38%	-24.4%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover12.2 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+6.1%	38%	-24.4%
10%	-4.1%	33%	-31.6%
15%	-13.3%	33%	-38.2%
20%	-21.8%	33%	-44.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 38% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -16% edge died — 90d negative

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +17% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 17% (≥$507) big bets weaker

Persistence

early +28% → late +6% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions

Win / loss size

+$344 vs −$296 · ×1.16 wins ≈ losses

Profit factor

×0.7 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$1,324

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)38%

Wins / losses9 / 15

Whale WR (big bets)17%

Est. fees paid−$144

Open positions0

Markets (closed)24 / 24

History coverage4d

Avg bet$343

Trades / day12.2

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 24 Trades

no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5	Jun 26	$712	−$7	-1%
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$103	−$76	-74%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$102	+$221	+216%
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia?	Jun 26	$338	+$1,162	+344%
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5	Jun 26	$51	−$50	-98%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5	Jun 26	$508	−$400	-79%
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 0 Sweden?	Jun 25	$50	−$49	-97%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5	Jun 25	$408	+$703	+172%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5	Jun 25	$1,199	−$1,199	-100%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5	Jun 24	$508	−$500	-98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 24	$258	−$16	-6%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	Jun 24	$509	−$500	-98%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5	Jun 24	$204	−$66	-32%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 24	$507	+$473	+93%
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	Jun 23	$517	−$510	-99%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	Jun 23	$507	−$499	-98%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$153	+$369	+241%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners	Jun 23	$520	−$63	-12%
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5	Jun 23	$430	−$372	-86%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5	Jun 23	$100	+$100	+100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$500	−$137	-27%
Exact Score: Norway 0 - 0 Senegal?	Jun 23	$1	$0	+13%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 22	$10	+$14	+140%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5	Jun 22	$47	+$53	+113%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5	SELL Under	46¢	$704	57m
Norway vs. France: O/U 5.5	BUY Under	45¢	$712	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	SELL No	3¢	$26	1h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY No	11¢	$103	2h
Paraguay vs. Australia: O/U 0.5	BUY Over	16¢	$51	17h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	10¢	$108	18h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	45¢	$508	19h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25?	BUY No	31¢	$102	19h
Exact Score: Paraguay 0 - 0 Australia?	BUY Yes	22¢	$338	19h
Exact Score: Japan 0 - 0 Sweden?	BUY Yes	7¢	$50	22h
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	36¢	$408	24h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	50¢	$1,199	44h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	45¢	$508	47h
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Over	41¢	$242	47h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	BUY Haiti	43¢	$509	2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	43¢	$206	2d
Morocco vs. Haiti: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	43¢	$52	2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5	SELL Under	18¢	$138	2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	18¢	$102	2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	43¢	$102	2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: 1st Half O/U 0.5	BUY Under	51¢	$507	2d
Panama vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	51¢	$517	2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners	BUY Under	48¢	$507	2d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners	SELL Over	46¢	$457	2d
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	33¢	$51	3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY No	27¢	$102	3d
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5	SELL Over	6¢	$58	3d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners	BUY Over	52¢	$212	3d
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners	BUY Over	52¢	$108	3d
England vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 1.5	BUY Over	43¢	$68	3d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records