Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:26:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DE 0xdec8…2eff other 48 markets active 1h ago coverage 315d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$277 (-2%) realized −$110 · open −$167
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate53%23W / 20L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$314per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit46%portable
Net worth$946now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$424
7 days+$507
14 days+$816
30 days+$816
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% +$102
politics 13% −$1,004
world 12% −$398
sports 7% −$139
economics 2% −$310
tech 1% +$129
crypto 1% +$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +30.1% +17.7% 82% 73% -0.2%
≤30d 13 +34.3% +21.5% 85% 77% +3.9%
≤90d 32 -27.1% -34.0% 44% 41% -29.0%
all 43 -19.3% -27.0% 53% 40% -18.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 40% -18.6%
10% -34.0% 33% -26.4%
15% -40.4% 33% -33.5%
20% -46.2% 21% -40.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -22% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$506) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -40% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$221 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

315d coverage
Net worth$946
Realized−$110
Unrealized−$167
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses23 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)43 / 48
History coverage315d
Avg bet$314
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit46%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 68¢ 62¢ $878 $794 −$84 (-10%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 19¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $28 −$2 (-6%)
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, 2026? Yes 77¢ 16¢ $100 $21 −$79 (-79%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1,251 −$1,240 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $653 +$103 +16%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $385 +$457 +119%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $652 +$63 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $424 +$194 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $253 +$126 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $122 +$89 +73%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $557 +$360 +65%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $324 +$184 +57%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $259 +$251 +97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $81 −$80 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $354 +$177 +50%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $207 +$132 +64%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $204 −$200 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $100 +$65 +65%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? Apr 22 $150 +$82 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Apr 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 22 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 21 $50 −$49 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 17 $227 +$119 +52%
Foreign intervention in Gaza in 2025? Apr 15 $506 −$506 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Apr 15 $310 −$310 -100%
Will the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by January 31? Apr 15 $578 −$578 -100%
Will the government shutdown end November 12? Apr 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 23-26? Apr 15 $121 −$121 -100%
FC Bayern München vs. RU Saint-Gilloise: O/U 4.5 Apr 15 $342 −$342 -100%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win on 2026-01-16? Apr 15 $460 −$460 -100%
New "Stranger Things" episode released by Wednesday? Apr 15 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Apr 01 $100 −$43 -43%
Databricks IPO before 2027? Apr 01 $250 −$101 -40%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $MARS? Feb 05 $3 −$3 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Feb 02 $103 +$46 +45%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Feb 02 $120 −$17 -14%
Will the Government shutdown end November 12-15? Nov 18 $295 +$15 +5%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 11 $571 +$33 +6%
100% tariff on China in effect by November 1? Nov 03 $1,006 +$71 +7%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31? Oct 20 $103 +$19 +18%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Oct 13 $10 $0 +1%
Russian strike on Poland by September 30? Oct 13 $936 +$60 +6%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by August 31? Sep 05 $853 +$92 +11%
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev Aug 20 $570 +$283 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $886 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 40¢ $204 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 53¢ $152 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $5 8h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 8h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 20¢ $102 8h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $844 8h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $653 8h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $60 36h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $652 36h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $325 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $424 36h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $122 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 66¢ $253 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $557 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $324 5d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $259 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $81 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $354 7d
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, SELL Yes $9 7d
Will Khamzat Chimaev be the UFC Middleweight Champion on December 31, BUY Yes 77¢ $201 45d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 34¢ $204 48d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $232 62d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $150 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $10 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 62d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $10 62d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 39¢ $50 63d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-25? BUY Yes 60¢ $100 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $946.09 · official $946.09 (match) · 123 history records