Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:25:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DE 0xdec6…1d8e sports 202 markets active 1h ago coverage 252d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$16,475 (+7%) realized +$15,568 · open +$907
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate48%96W / 105L
Whale WR49%big bets
Drawdown78%max
Avg bet$1,188per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$172est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,064now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,205
7 days+$2,679
14 days+$933
30 days+$933
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 75% +$24,910
crypto 25% −$7,075
other 0% −$498
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +3.9% -6.0% 55% 55% +28.7%
≤30d 15 -12.2% -20.6% 47% 47% -0.1%
≤90d 26 -20.2% -27.8% 42% 42% -17.1%
all 201 -3.5% -12.7% 48% 48% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 48% -3.3%
10% -21.0% 48% -12.6%
15% -28.6% 48% -21.0%
20% -35.6% 48% -28.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 49% (≥$1,436) neutral
Persistence
early +16% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,328 vs −$1,058 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

252d coverage
Net worth$2,064
Realized+$15,568
Unrealized+$907
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses96 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)49%
Est. fees paid−$172
Open positions1
Markets (closed)201 / 202
History coverage252d
Avg bet$1,188
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown78%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Inner Circle Esports 56¢ 100¢ $1,156 $2,064 +$907 (+78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Betclic Apogee Esports vs OG (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr Jun 25 $530 −$530 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 25 $584 +$587 +101%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 25 $400 −$400 -100%
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Jun 25 $435 −$433 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 24 $2 −$2 -99%
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europ Jun 24 $1,516 +$1,241 +82%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Acend (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A Jun 24 $774 +$742 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 21 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $95 +$95 +100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 21 $1,331 +$732 +55%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $635 +$695 +109%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $479 +$356 +74%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Aurora Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $244 −$244 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $304 −$304 -100%
Counter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs Jun 12 $1,554 −$1,554 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Rio Group B Apr 14 $117 +$127 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 14 $235 +$234 +100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Apr 14 $117 −$117 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Apr 14 $314 −$314 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Heroic - Map 2 Winner Apr 14 $581 −$581 -100%
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group S Apr 14 $547 −$547 -100%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alpha Apr 14 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 1 Playoffs Apr 03 $295 +$286 +97%
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Karmine Corp - Map 2 Winner Apr 02 $970 +$522 +54%
Valorant: Fnatic vs ULF Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omega Apr 01 $54 −$54 -100%
Ducks vs. Maple Leafs: O/U 6.5 Apr 01 $642 −$642 -100%
Counter-Strike: EYEBALLERS vs Voca (BO1) - Roman Imperium Cup Group B Mar 12 $58 +$42 +72%
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winner Mar 12 $742 −$742 -100%
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Gro Mar 12 $1,080 −$1,080 -100%
StarCraft II: Maru vs Serral (BO7) - PiG Sty Festival Playoffs Mar 02 $77 −$77 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Mar 02 $663 −$663 -100%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters Santiago Group Stage Mar 02 $948 +$874 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Feb 27 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Valorant: Natus Vincere vs Karmine Corp (BO3) Feb 27 $1,061 −$1,059 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Feb 27 $49 −$49 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Feb 27 $98 −$98 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Feb 27 $209 −$209 -100%
Valorant: Gentle Mates vs BBL Esports (BO5) - VCT EMEA Kickoff Playoff Feb 27 $396 −$396 -100%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Enterprise Esports (BO3) - VCT EMEA Clash Gro Feb 27 $553 −$553 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Rio: Global Closed Feb 27 $622 −$622 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9INE vs K27 (BO3) - IEM Rio: Global Closed Qualifier P Feb 27 $715 −$715 -100%
Counter-Strike: ShindeN vs Galorys (BO3) - PGL Bucharest: South Americ Feb 27 $712 −$712 -100%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: West Jan 21 $1,062 +$1,150 +108%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs MOUZ (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham: Western Europe Jan 20 $1,168 +$955 +82%
Suns vs. Heat Jan 14 $520 +$499 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jan 03 $6 +$6 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jan 03 $6 +$6 +100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) Jan 03 $927 −$927 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Inner Circle Esports 56¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Inner Circle Esports 56¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dra BUY Inner Circle Esports 56¢ $1,168 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $24 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $100 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $8 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $39 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $40 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $12 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $20 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $69 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $75 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $28 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $49 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $63 4h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 40¢ $355 5h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 40¢ $2 5h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group A BUY Acend 40¢ $43 5h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 50¢ $6 7h
Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Walczaki (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B BUY Walczaki 50¢ $298 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,063.73 · official $2,063.73 (match) · 1798 history records