Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:19:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DE
0xdec2…bb08
other · 46 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$19 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$103 · open −$127
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$65
Realized+$103
Unrealized−$127
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses14 / 25
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions7
Markets (closed)39 / 46
History coverage6d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown58%
Kalshi-fit52%
Chart Positions 7 History 39 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$43
7 days+$103
14 days+$103
30 days+$103
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 26¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-6%)
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Yes 55¢ 52¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-5%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $104 $9 −$96 (-92%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-19%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0.1–0.2%? Yes 12¢ 2¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-85%)
Will Sánchez win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 0–4%? Yes 15¢ 1¢ $20 $1 −$19 (-94%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Seattle Mariners 33¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Arizona Diamondbacks 29¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 28¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Houston Astros 25¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Scotland 40¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 62¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 11¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 14 $35 +$23 +67%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$45 +442%
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 +$16 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $25 +$39 +152%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $11 +$28 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -94%
World Cup: Winless Team? Jun 12 $9 −$5 -53%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $7 +$71 +982%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $7 +$9 +129%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $15 +$6 +42%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 −$6 -97%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Kwibuka T20 Tournament, Women: Rwanda vs Malawi Jun 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$19 +1521%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 10 $15 −$15 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $5 −$5 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 10 $15 −$15 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $10 +$27 +276%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $15 +$10 +65%
Libema Open (Doubles): Auger-Aliassime/Shapovalov vs Nouza/Oberleitner Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Libema Open: Emma Navarro vs Caty McNally Jun 10 $19 +$7 +36%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $12 +$7 +52%
Will Venezuela win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $9 +$4 +42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 38% +$23
sports 38% +$80
politics 23% −$123
crypto 2% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 2 Japan? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 1h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $15 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $58 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 59¢ $35 13h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 13h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $55 13h
Exact Score: Australia 0 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 16h
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? BUY Yes 7¢ $5 16h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 17h
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 40¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Haiti 1 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 19h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 19h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $31 20h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $15 22h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $15 22h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 40h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 3 Switzerland? BUY Yes 15¢ $10 40h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 40h
Exact Score: United States 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 41h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $64 41h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 39¢ $25 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $3 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $11 2d
World Cup: Winless Team? SELL No 0¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Canada 3 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 6¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 2d
Exact Score: Canada 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+30.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +43.8% +30.1% 36% 36% +13.4%
≤30d 39 +43.8% +30.1% 36% 36% +13.4%
≤90d 39 +43.8% +30.1% 36% 36% +13.4%
all 39 +43.8% +30.1% 36% 36% +13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +30.1% 36% +13.4%
10% +17.7% 36% +2.5%
15% +6.3% 36% -7.4%
20% -4.1% 28% -16.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.58 · official $64.58 (match) · 64 history records