Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:45:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DE 0xdec2…aed7 crypto 157 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$509 (+1%) realized +$539 · open −$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate45%70W / 84L
Whale WR56%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$275per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$145now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$145
14 days+$161
30 days+$161
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$235
sports 7% −$131
other 2% +$335
politics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 8 +19.7% +8.3% 50% 50% +24.1%
≤90d 9 +6.4% -3.7% 44% 44% +21.4%
all 154 +7.6% -2.6% 45% 44% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 44% -9.5%
10% -11.9% 42% -18.2%
15% -20.5% 38% -26.1%
20% -28.3% 33% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 56% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +23% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$245 vs −$204 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$145
Realized+$539
Unrealized−$30
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses70 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)56%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)154 / 157
History coverage174d
Avg bet$275
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 154 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $115 $96 −$19 (-17%)
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $30 $20 −$10 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $122 −$120 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $81 +$89 +109%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $36 +$89 +249%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $61 +$97 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Apr 18 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Mar 07 $15 −$10 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Mar 07 $17 +$6 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Mar 07 $1 +$1 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Mar 07 $15 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Mar 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Mar 04 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Mar 04 $5 −$4 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Mar 01 $17 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Mar 01 $5 +$10 +200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Mar 01 $5 +$14 +278%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Mar 01 $1 +$2 +147%
Bitcoin Up or Down on February 16? Feb 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Feb 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11PM ET Feb 14 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Feb 14 $233 −$107 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Feb 14 $128 +$105 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Feb 13 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Feb 13 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Feb 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Feb 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Feb 12 $176 −$174 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Feb 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Feb 12 $49 −$48 -98%
Solana Up or Down - February 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Feb 12 $20 +$85 +424%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Feb 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Feb 12 $410 +$8 +2%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs Wildcard - Map 2 Winner Feb 11 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Feb 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs fnatic (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: Global Qualifier P Feb 11 $501 −$176 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Feb 11 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Feb 11 $100 +$98 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Feb 11 $110 −$18 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Feb 11 $296 +$86 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Feb 11 $20 +$43 +213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Feb 11 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Feb 11 $20 +$18 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Feb 11 $330 +$21 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Feb 11 $198 +$137 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Feb 11 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Feb 11 $200 −$200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 6¢ $31 1h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $15 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 53¢ $122 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $170 7d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 7d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $81 8d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $125 8d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $36 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $158 8d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 8d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $61 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 9d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 11d
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $118 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 63d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $5 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $5 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET SELL Up 67¢ $5 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $5 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 38¢ $23 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $17 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET SELL Up 40¢ $2 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $1 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET SELL Down 49¢ $19 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $15 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 7, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 105d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $10 108d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $145.22 · official $145.24 (match) · 420 history records