Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T12:34:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xdec0…8336 culture 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 243d
TRAPdo not copy culture specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$626 (-15%) realized −$617 · open −$9
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate13%4W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$210now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
culture 58% −$636
politics 27% −$1,099
crypto 11% +$1,121
other 4% −$8
weather 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-7.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 1 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 30 +1.9% -7.8% 13% 13% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.8% 13% -24.7%
10% -16.7% 13% -31.9%
15% -24.7% 13% -38.5%
20% -32.1% 13% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +73% → late -69% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$639 vs −$122 · ×5.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

243d coverage
Net worth$210
Realized−$617
Unrealized−$9
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses4 / 26
Open positions3
Markets (closed)30 / 33
History coverage243d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 30 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $99 $91 −$8 (-8%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $60 $59 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on April 24? Apr 23 $11 −$11 -97%
Will "Crime 101" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 20m? Feb 16 $278 −$278 -100%
Will "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and Feb 15 $304 −$304 -100%
Will "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and Feb 15 $59 −$59 -100%
Will "Good Luck, Have Fun, Don't Die" Opening Weekend Box Office be be Feb 15 $93 −$64 -69%
Will "Solo Mio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8.5m? Feb 09 $220 +$620 +281%
Will "Solo Mio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5.5m and 7m? Feb 08 $146 −$146 -100%
Will "Solo Mio" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 8.5m? Feb 07 $58 −$27 -47%
Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 4.5m? Jan 30 $34 −$34 -100%
Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4.5m and 5m? Jan 30 $35 −$35 -100%
Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 4m? Jan 30 $46 −$46 -100%
Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 3.5m? Jan 30 $40 −$40 -100%
Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2m and 2.5m? Jan 30 $55 −$55 -100%
Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 2.5m and 3m? Jan 30 $55 −$55 -100%
Will "Mercy" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 14m? Jan 26 $174 −$174 -100%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 6th Weekend Box Office be less than 8.5m? Jan 24 $289 −$289 -100%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 13m and Jan 21 $69 +$288 +414%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Second Weekend Box Office be between 57m a Dec 28 $133 −$133 -100%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Second Weekend Box Office be less than 57m Dec 28 $25 −$25 -100%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Second Weekend Box Office be greater than Dec 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m Dec 22 $325 +$235 +72%
Will Daniel Baluta finish second in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-elec Dec 07 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Catalin Drula finish third in the 2025 Bucharest mayoral by-elect Dec 07 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Anca Alexandrescu be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Dec 05 $56 −$56 -100%
Will Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election? Nov 26 $533 −$533 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani get between 40% and 50% of the vote in 2025 NYC ma Nov 05 $376 −$376 -100%
Will Zohran Mamdani get between 30% and 40% of the vote in 2025 NYC ma Nov 03 $36 −$9 -26%
Will Democrats 66 win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamen Oct 30 $97 +$1,415 +1456%
Will the Christian Democratic Appeal win the most seats in the 2025 Ne Oct 26 $112 −$112 -100%
Will GreenLeft–Labour win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parli Oct 26 $181 −$181 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $56 1h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $46 1h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $62 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $62 1h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on April 24? BUY Yes 36¢ $11 58d
Will "Crime 101" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 20m? BUY Yes 5¢ $34 124d
Will "Crime 101" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 20m? BUY Yes 9¢ $35 125d
Will "Crime 101" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 20m? BUY Yes 11¢ $57 125d
Will "Crime 101" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 20m? BUY Yes 25¢ $152 125d
Will "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and BUY Yes 18¢ $58 125d
Will "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and BUY Yes 30¢ $100 125d
Will "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and BUY Yes 3¢ $25 125d
Will "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and BUY Yes 3¢ $34 125d
Will "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and BUY Yes 18¢ $29 126d
Will "Good Luck, Have Fun, Don't Die" Opening Weekend Box Office be be SELL Yes 7¢ $29 126d
Will "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and BUY Yes 19¢ $56 126d
Will "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and BUY Yes 20¢ $2 126d
Will "Wuthering Heights" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and BUY Yes 19¢ $58 126d
Will "Good Luck, Have Fun, Don't Die" Opening Weekend Box Office be be BUY Yes 21¢ $93 127d
Will "Solo Mio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8.5m? BUY Yes 27¢ $116 132d
Will "Solo Mio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 7m and 8.5m? BUY Yes 25¢ $105 132d
Will "Solo Mio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5.5m and 7m? BUY Yes 22¢ $57 132d
Will "Solo Mio" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 5.5m and 7m? BUY Yes 15¢ $88 133d
Will "Solo Mio" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 8.5m? SELL Yes 2¢ $30 133d
Will "Solo Mio" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 8.5m? BUY Yes 4¢ $58 133d
Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4m and 4.5m? BUY Yes 4¢ $34 141d
Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 4.5m and 5m? BUY Yes 4¢ $35 141d
Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 4m? BUY Yes 7¢ $16 141d
Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3m and 3.5m? BUY Yes 3¢ $40 141d
Will "Melania" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 3.5m and 4m? BUY Yes 4¢ $30 141d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $210.09 · official $210.09 (match) · 92 history records