Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:51:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xdebe…c0c4 sports 20 markets active 6d ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$4 (-8%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day14.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-21.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -12.1% -20.4% 50% 50% -20.3%
≤30d 20 -13.6% -21.8% 45% 35% -19.2%
≤90d 20 -13.6% -21.8% 45% 35% -19.2%
all 20 -13.6% -21.8% 45% 35% -19.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.8% 35% -19.2%
10% -29.3% 35% -26.9%
15% -36.1% 25% -34.0%
20% -42.4% 10% -40.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)20 / 20
History coverage4d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day14.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 20 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +73%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 10 $5 −$2 -46%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $3 −$1 -30%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 10 $4 +$3 +83%
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $1 −$1 -41%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 10 $3 −$2 -76%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 Jun 10 $1 −$1 -46%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $1 $0 +35%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $3 −$1 -39%
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) Jun 10 $3 +$1 +25%
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) Jun 09 $1 $0 +2%
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 09 $4 +$2 +42%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 9.5 Jun 09 $1 $0 +5%
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5) Jun 09 $1 +$1 +46%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $4 +$1 +42%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 09 $8 −$3 -37%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Heather Watson vs Beatriz Haddad Ma Jun 07 $1 $0 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 SELL Over $0 6d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres $1 7d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres SELL San Diego Padres 12¢ $1 7d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY Cincinnati Reds 89¢ $1 7d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 28¢ $1 7d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 21¢ $1 7d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres BUY San Diego Padres 23¢ $1 7d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 58¢ $1 7d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 56¢ $1 7d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 59¢ $1 7d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 11.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1 7d
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) SELL Athletics $0 7d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants SELL San Francisco Giants 16¢ $1 7d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 26¢ $1 7d
Spread: Athletics (-2.5) BUY Athletics 39¢ $1 7d
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) SELL Golden State Valkyries 13¢ $1 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 68¢ $1 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 SELL Under 21¢ $1 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 13.5 BUY Under 37¢ $1 7d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 69¢ $2 7d
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 48¢ $1 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 SELL Under $0 7d
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) BUY Golden State Valkyries 58¢ $1 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 8.5 SELL Over 80¢ $1 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 49¢ $1 7d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 49¢ $1 7d
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) SELL St. Louis Cardinals 98¢ $3 7d
Spread: New York Mets (-2.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 81¢ $1 7d
Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5) SELL New York Mets 69¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records