Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:00:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xdeb9…034c crypto 215 markets active 12d ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$400 (-6%) realized −$400 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate53%113W / 102L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day46.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$18
30 days−$720
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$720
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 215 -13.8% -22.0% 53% 37% -19.0%
≤90d 215 -13.8% -22.0% 53% 37% -19.0%
all 215 -13.8% -22.0% 53% 37% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.0% 37% -19.0%
10% ← realistic here -29.5% 24% -26.7%
15% -36.3% 14% -33.8%
20% -42.5% 13% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
28% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$19 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$400
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses113 / 102
Open positions0
Markets (closed)215 / 215
History coverage10d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day46.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 215 Trades
no open positions (46 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $83 +$68 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$3 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $41 −$40 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$15 +280%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $16 +$12 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$6 +118%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 10 $21 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $31 −$7 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 09 $20 −$4 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$9 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$13 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 09 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 09 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 09 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 09 $32 −$13 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$17 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$8 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 09 $16 +$9 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 09 $73 +$111 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 09 $21 +$10 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 09 $42 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $21 +$18 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 09 $16 −$5 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 09 $21 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 09 $21 +$41 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 09 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 09 $20 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 09 $51 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 09 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 09 $15 −$14 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $151 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $83 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $41 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $21 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET SELL Up 95¢ $28 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $10 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $12 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $5 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 74¢ $2 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $10 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET SELL Down 90¢ $12 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $10 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $19 18d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 499 history records