Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:57:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

DE 0xdeb5…4ba6 other 5 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ net negative once open positions are counted

Total PnL −$17 (-16%) realized +$45 · open −$62

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +156% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +122% what you keep after slip

Net edge+122%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown11%max

Avg bet$22per market

Trades / day3.6pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)+131.4%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+155.8%	+131.4%	33%	33%	+313.9%
≤30d	3	+155.8%	+131.4%	33%	33%	+313.9%
≤90d	3	+155.8%	+131.4%	33%	33%	+313.9%
all	3	+155.8%	+131.4%	33%	33%	+313.9%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+131.4%	33%	+313.9%
10%	+109.3%	33%	+274.3%
15%	+89.1%	33%	+238.1%
20%	+70.5%	33%	+204.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +357% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +156% · $-wt +357% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$171 vs −$9 · ×19.7 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×9.85 per $1 lost it wins $9.85

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$45

Unrealized−$62

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions2

Markets (closed)3 / 5

History coverage2d

Avg bet$22

Trades / day3.6

Drawdown11%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria?	Yes	5¢	0¢	$22	$0	−$22 (-99%)
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	13¢	0¢	$40	$0	−$40 (-100%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria?	Jun 23	$26	+$171	+667%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria?	Jun 22	$11	−$11	-97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	Jun 21	$7	−$7	-97%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria?	SELL Yes	87¢	$197	1m
Exact Score: Jordan 2 - 1 Algeria?	BUY Yes	5¢	$23	1h
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 2 Algeria?	BUY Yes	11¢	$26	1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	13¢	$41	1h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Austria?	BUY Yes	11¢	$11	11h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21?	BUY Yes	4¢	$7	40h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.37 · official $0.37 (match) · 6 history records