Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:36:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xdeae…fba7 crypto 201 markets active 1h ago coverage 82d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$37 (+1%) realized +$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate51%103W / 98L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$53
7 days+$50
14 days+$3
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$14
sports 2% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -3.6% -12.8% 71% 36% +2.1%
≤30d 96 +4.7% -5.3% 69% 56% -8.0%
≤90d 201 -14.2% -22.4% 51% 43% -9.7%
all 201 -14.2% -22.4% 51% 43% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 43% -9.7%
10% -29.8% 36% -18.4%
15% -36.6% 26% -26.3%
20% -42.8% 20% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -31% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

82d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses103 / 98
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)201 / 201
History coverage82d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 201 Trades
no open positions (81 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$5 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$3 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$19 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 21 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 21 $61 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$22 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 21 $31 +$5 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$2 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 11 $15 +$6 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$16 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$11 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$2 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 11 $101 +$19 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $77 +$17 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 11 $50 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 11 $51 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 11 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$24 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$10 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 11 $36 +$12 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 11 $51 −$22 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $57 +$16 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 11 $109 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 11 $130 +$9 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 11 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 11 $52 +$5 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 11 $26 +$8 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 11 $202 +$11 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 11 $205 −$24 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 10 $126 −$26 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$10 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 10 $104 +$41 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 10 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 10 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 10 $26 +$21 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 10 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 10 $100 +$50 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 10 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $51 +$18 +35%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $22 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 35¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $28 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $32 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $6 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $28 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $27 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $25 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $46 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 564 history records