Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:31:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DE 0xdea8…532f crypto 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$25 (+14%) realized +$29 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day7.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% +$14
weather 18% −$6
sports 17% +$33
other 16% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-13.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -4.4% -13.5% 60% 40% +14.9%
≤30d 5 -4.4% -13.5% 60% 40% +14.9%
≤90d 5 -4.4% -13.5% 60% 40% +14.9%
all 5 -4.4% -13.5% 60% 40% +14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.5% 40% +14.9%
10% -21.8% 40% +3.9%
15% -29.4% 20% -6.2%
20% -36.3% 20% -15.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +27% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$7 · ×2.1 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.15 per $1 lost it wins $3.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$29
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)5 / 9
History coverage2d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day7.7
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? No 64¢ 70¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 16? Yes 30¢ 26¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-12%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 16? Yes 24¢ 12¢ $10 $5 −$5 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $41 +$11 +26%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 −$8 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $25 +$1 +5%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$6 -62%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $30 +$33 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $36.15 · official $36.89 (match) · 14 history records