Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T20:03:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DE 0xdea0…632d other 88 markets active 2h ago coverage 354d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-1%) realized −$28 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%36W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$25
7 days+$72
14 days+$47
30 days+$47
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$61
sports 25% −$123
crypto 7% +$51
world 3% −$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +1.3% -8.3% 52% 52% -3.4%
≤30d 52 +19.1% +7.7% 46% 46% -7.3%
≤90d 72 +6.1% -4.0% 47% 46% -7.9%
all 86 -6.3% -15.2% 42% 41% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.2% 41% -11.8%
10% -23.3% 38% -20.3%
15% -30.7% 34% -28.0%
20% -37.5% 28% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$18 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

354d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses36 / 50
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)86 / 88
History coverage354d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 68¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 39 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $25 −$6 -25%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $25 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $51 −$50 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $106 +$47 +44%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $21 +$9 +44%
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Germany? Jun 20 $26 −$1 -4%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$29 +58%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $51 +$34 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 +$31 +62%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $25 +$27 +105%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$23 +46%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$14 +276%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 +$27 +53%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $50 +$19 +38%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 +$20 +134%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$37 +73%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $50 +$23 +46%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$116 +226%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$1 -3%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 +$21 +410%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 +$34 +67%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $101 +$25 +24%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $10 +$90 +874%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $9 +$44 +474%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 +$7 +14%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 −$50 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $6 −$6 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 29¢ $19 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 66¢ $25 1h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 37¢ $25 2h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 65¢ $25 2h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 3h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 31¢ $51 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $51 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $31 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 95¢ $103 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 44¢ $30 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $14 2d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 2d
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Germany? SELL Yes 29¢ $24 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $80 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 66¢ $50 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $51 3d
Côte d'Ivoire to score first vs. Germany? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $51 4d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $51 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 93¢ $74 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $100.75 · official $100.75 (match) · 151 history records