Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T20:13:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DE
0xdea0…d53d
sports · 11 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$2 -11%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$0 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Net worth$3
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage217d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%
Chart Positions 2 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Yes 19¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 81¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +46%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +38%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -64%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -83%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 $0 +15%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $2 −$2 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $2 +$2 +79%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $2 $0 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 61% +$1
other 39% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 99¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 67¢ $2 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 99¢ $3 1h
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 71¢ $2 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $2 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 9h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 19¢ $0 14h
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 14h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes $0 14h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $1 15h
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 18h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 74¢ $2 18h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $2 37h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $2 37h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 96¢ $3 41h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 80¢ $1 41h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 79¢ $1 41h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 36¢ $1 41h
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) SELL T1 74¢ $2 217d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY T1 60¢ $2 217d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-24.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -21.1% -28.6% 50% 50% -15.7%
≤30d 8 -21.1% -28.6% 50% 50% -15.7%
≤90d 8 -21.1% -28.6% 50% 50% -15.7%
all 9 -16.2% -24.2% 56% 56% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.2% 56% -12.1%
10% -31.4% 44% -20.5%
15% -38.1% 33% -28.2%
20% -44.1% 11% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.87 · official $2.87 (match) · 20 history records