Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:31:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DE
0xde9d…5176
crypto · 400 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$27 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$29 · open +$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$33
Realized−$29
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses305 / 90
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)395 / 400
History coverage138d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 5 History 395 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$9
14 days−$11
30 days−$22
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 21¢ 24¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+12%)
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) New York Yankees 75¢ 84¢ $7 $8 +$1 (+11%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 75¢ 79¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 80¢ 82¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? No 75¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Under 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Spurs 70¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 60¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Philadelphia Phillies 73¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 161.5 Over 60¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Detroit Tigers 54¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Seattle Mariners 86¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 62¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) Jun 11 $5 +$1 +20%
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) Jun 11 $6 +$1 +18%
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $10 +$5 +49%
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) Jun 10 $9 +$7 +76%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $5 +$3 +57%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 09 $5 −$5 -99%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 Jun 09 $0 $0 -97%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) Jun 07 $8 +$7 +85%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $5 +$1 +12%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $8 −$8 -100%
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 161.5 Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) Jun 06 $5 +$3 +50%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 165.5 Jun 05 $15 +$9 +60%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 04 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10PM ET Jun 03 $16 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10PM ET Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET Jun 01 $14 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Club Bolívar win on 2026-05-19? Jun 01 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12PM ET May 31 $13 $0 +0%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 5.5 May 30 $15 +$1 +4%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) May 30 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5PM ET May 29 $15 $0 +0%
Fredrikstad FK vs. IK Start: O/U 5.5 May 29 $7 −$5 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3AM ET May 29 $11 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5PM ET May 29 $13 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3PM ET May 28 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3AM ET May 26 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6PM ET May 25 $14 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 7AM ET May 20 $17 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 10PM ET May 20 $18 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9PM ET May 20 $11 −$8 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12PM ET May 19 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7AM ET May 19 $14 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 11PM ET May 19 $17 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 7AM ET May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3AM ET May 18 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 9PM ET May 18 $14 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 11PM ET May 18 $13 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10PM ET May 17 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 7AM ET May 16 $11 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6PM ET May 16 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2PM ET May 15 $7 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1PM ET May 15 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 6AM ET May 15 $7 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4AM ET May 15 $9 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2AM ET May 15 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 50% −$22
politics 17% −$2
other 13% +$7
sports 12% −$11
world 6% $0
economics 1% −$1
culture 0% +$1
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY New York Yankees 75¢ $7 1h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $5 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 75¢ $5 29h
Spread: Spurs (-14.5) BUY Knicks 83¢ $5 2d
Spread: Spurs (-20.5) BUY Knicks 85¢ $6 2d
Spread: Spurs (-8.5) BUY Spurs 70¢ $10 2d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 60¢ $5 2d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Detroit Tigers 54¢ $5 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 66¢ $10 3d
Spread: Golden State Valkyries (-7.5) BUY Phoenix Mercury 56¢ $9 3d
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 63¢ $5 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 62¢ $5 3d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 1¢ $0 4d
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 54¢ $8 6d
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Kansas City Royals 89¢ $5 6d
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers BUY Seattle Mariners 86¢ $8 6d
Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 161.5 BUY Over 60¢ $10 7d
Spread: Spurs (-1.5) BUY Knicks 66¢ $5 7d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 165.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5 8d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 165.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5 8d
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx: O/U 165.5 BUY Over 62¢ $5 8d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? BUY Yes 80¢ $5 8d
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Philadelphia Phillies 73¢ $5 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $16 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $14 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $10 12d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $13 13d
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) BUY Arsenal FC 94¢ $5 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -21.7% -29.2% 54% 54% -19.1%
≤30d 54 -9.1% -17.8% 81% 17% -13.2%
≤90d 232 -2.5% -11.8% 81% 5% -10.3%
all 395 -2.1% -11.5% 77% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 4% -10.0%
10% -19.9% 2% -18.6%
15% -27.7% 2% -26.5%
20% -34.8% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.98 · official $32.98 (match) · 1728 history records