Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:10:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde9c…1b2f crypto 126 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (100 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$58 (-2%) realized −$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%61W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day100.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$183
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (100 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 126 +9.9% -0.6% 48% 46% -11.2%
≤30d 126 +9.9% -0.6% 48% 46% -11.2%
≤90d 126 +9.9% -0.6% 48% 46% -11.2%
all 126 +9.9% -0.6% 48% 46% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover100.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -0.6% 46% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -10.1% 43% -19.7%
15% -18.8% 40% -27.4%
20% -26.8% 33% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +35% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$20 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses61 / 65
Open positions0
Markets (closed)126 / 126
History coverage6d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day100.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 126 Trades
no open positions (46 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 16 $64 −$31 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 16 $104 +$43 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 16 $16 −$3 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $78 −$43 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 16 $85 −$44 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $61 −$13 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $39 −$38 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $209 −$62 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $12 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$1 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $100 +$89 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $100 −$61 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $58 +$29 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $82 −$54 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $31 +$13 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $69 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 15 $21 +$24 +112%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 15 $91 +$56 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $74 −$72 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $31 +$25 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $71 +$69 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $80 −$9 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$19 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $74 −$38 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $50 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $61 +$53 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $40 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $11 −$11 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 14 $53 +$42 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 14 $61 −$59 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $34 −$27 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$28 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $57 −$55 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$10 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $11 +$6 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $31 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Down 20¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $81 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET SELL Down 79¢ $67 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $13 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 652 history records