Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:32:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde98…8cd3 other 148 markets active 2h ago coverage 526d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$12 (+0%) realized +$12 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate37%54W / 92L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$7
30 days−$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$8
other 27% −$7
politics 8% +$5
finance 3% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 2% +$5
economics 2% $0
crypto 2% −$1
culture 1% +$18
weather 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 29 -1.1% -10.5% 31% 7% -10.0%
≤90d 33 +0.3% -9.2% 33% 12% -10.0%
all 146 -0.5% -10.0% 37% 6% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 6% -9.2%
10% -18.6% 4% -17.9%
15% -26.5% 4% -25.8%
20% -33.7% 3% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.44 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.31 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

526d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$12
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses54 / 92
Open positions2
Markets (closed)146 / 148
History coverage526d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 146 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 81¢ 82¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $88 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 23 $88 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 22 $102 −$2 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $95 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $21 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $188 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $54 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $77 $0 -0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $5 +$1 +11%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $170 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $28 +$5 +17%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $64 $0 -0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $126 −$11 -9%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $83 +$1 +1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $83 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $99 −$1 -1%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $101 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $95 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $88 −$1 -1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $97 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $3 $0 -17%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $88 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 31 $97 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $21 −$2 -10%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $108 −$1 -1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $89 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 29 $89 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $191 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 28 $5 −$1 -18%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 18 $3 $0 -7%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 18 $1 $0 -14%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $2 $0 +19%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $2 +$1 +43%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Dec 30 $2 −$1 -98%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Dec 16 $13 $0 +1%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 02 $1 −$1 -79%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $14 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $16 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $5 +$3 +64%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 24 $50 +$3 +5%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 23 $9 −$1 -12%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Oct 11 $7 +$5 +69%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will The Life of a Showgirl’s first-week album sales be between 375000 Oct 10 $8 $0 +3%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 10 $13 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $5,000 by December 31? Oct 09 $2 $0 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $88 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $88 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $88 6h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $88 7h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $18 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $63 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $58 32h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $23 32h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $60 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $62 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $4 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $1 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $80 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $80 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $21 5d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $4 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $92 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $92 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $92 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $92 6d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $92 7d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $92 7d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $7 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $46 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $53 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes $1 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes $0 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.36 · official $0.00 · 489 history records