Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:18:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DE 0xde95…7677 crypto 757 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$54 (+0%) realized +$57 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate86%650W / 106L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day20.2pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$182
14 days−$288
30 days−$298
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$136
other 7% −$313
sports 1% +$176
world 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)-8.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +35.2% +22.3% 50% 40% -13.1%
≤30d 131 +7.5% -2.7% 80% 46% -11.4%
≤90d 756 +1.2% -8.4% 86% 62% -10.0%
all 756 +1.2% -8.4% 86% 62% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.4% 62% -10.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.2% 6% -18.6%
15% -25.2% 2% -26.4%
20% -32.5% 1% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$77 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$57
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses650 / 106
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions1
Markets (closed)756 / 757
History coverage81d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day20.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 756 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 17 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $454 +$59 +13%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $151 −$101 -67%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$17 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$22 +22%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $41 −$27 -65%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $251 −$10 -4%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $92 +$9 +10%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$24 +24%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $272 −$53 -20%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 −$3 -9%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $61 +$33 +54%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $263 −$65 -24%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $206 +$77 +37%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,237 −$386 -31%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$65 +319%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $60 −$8 -13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$3 -8%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$2 -8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $301 +$19 +6%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $11 −$5 -49%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $91 −$28 -31%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $61 +$2 +3%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $51 −$4 -8%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $307 +$43 +14%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $41 +$24 +59%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $228 −$17 -8%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $31 +$30 +98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $252 +$93 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 10 $100 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 09 $99 +$18 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 09 $99 −$98 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 09 $100 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 09 $101 +$10 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 09 $100 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 08 $100 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 08 $100 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 08 $100 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $100 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 08 $100 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 08 $100 +$11 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 08 $99 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 08 $100 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 08 $100 +$12 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 07 $100 +$17 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 07 $99 +$14 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 07 $100 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 07 $99 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 06 $100 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 5m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 78¢ $255 5m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 49¢ $102 26m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $204 26m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 80¢ $101 31m
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 77¢ $210 58m
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $102 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 17¢ $86 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $82 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $202 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 15¢ $44 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $102 2h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 13h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $101 13h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 15h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $50 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $51 21h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 21h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 85¢ $95 22h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 22h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? SELL Yes 8¢ $11 22h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 24h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 80¢ $98 24h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 24h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 79¢ $80 24h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $39 25h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 49¢ $51 25h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $33 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.35 · official $27.35 (match) · 2426 history records