Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T07:09:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DE 0xde92…8159 sports 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$533 (+12%) realized +$530 · open +$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate68%28W / 13L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$209
14 days+$284
30 days+$284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% +$131
sports 48% +$392
politics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -16.0% -24.0% 50% 50% -1.7%
≤30d 18 -9.9% -18.5% 56% 56% +0.3%
≤90d 18 -9.9% -18.5% 56% 56% +0.3%
all 41 +1.2% -8.5% 68% 51% +1.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 51% +1.2%
10% -17.2% 37% -8.5%
15% -25.2% 24% -17.3%
20% -32.6% 15% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$32 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.23 per $1 lost it wins $2.23
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$209
Realized+$530
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses28 / 13
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage131d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Yes 59¢ 60¢ $200 $205 +$5 (+3%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $6 $4 −$2 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $251 +$57 +23%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $102 −$52 -51%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $101 +$58 +57%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $41 −$11 -26%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $302 +$71 +24%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $51 −$27 -52%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $302 +$73 +24%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $251 +$36 +14%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $51 +$49 +97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $352 −$132 -38%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $252 +$65 +26%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $252 +$115 +46%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $151 +$54 +36%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $50 +$21 +42%
Counter-Strike: ODDIK vs Galorys (BO3) - BetBoom RUSH B! Summit Playof Feb 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs BESTIA (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Feb 25 $50 +$32 +65%
Counter-Strike: CSDIILIT vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifi Feb 25 $160 +$21 +13%
Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during the 2026 State of the Union ad Feb 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 15+ times during t Feb 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-23? Feb 24 $26 +$36 +138%
Counter-Strike: AM Gaming vs Lazer Cats (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series G Feb 23 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-02-22? Feb 22 $250 +$25 +10%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs TheMongolz (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Feb 21 $164 +$92 +56%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs Metizport (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #15 Pl Feb 19 $147 +$16 +11%
Will FK Bodø/Glimt win on 2026-02-18? Feb 19 $127 +$20 +16%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs los kogutos (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #15 P Feb 18 $114 +$13 +11%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs PARIVISION (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Stag Feb 18 $99 +$16 +16%
Will Coventry City FC win on 2026-02-16? Feb 17 $90 +$9 +10%
Will AVS Futebol win on 2026-02-15? Feb 16 $83 +$6 +8%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Feb 15 $2 +$5 +257%
Will Gil Vicente FC win on 2026-02-14? Feb 15 $69 +$7 +10%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-13? Feb 14 $63 +$6 +10%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-02-12? Feb 13 $58 +$5 +9%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs 33 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: Global Qualifi Feb 12 $55 +$4 +6%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs OG (BO3) - IEM Atlanta: Global Qualifier P Feb 11 $10 +$3 +33%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-02-10? Feb 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 10 $21 +$10 +47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $202 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 81¢ $251 11h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 24¢ $50 28h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $102 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $101 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 33¢ $30 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 43¢ $41 2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 23¢ $24 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $251 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $51 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $302 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 4d
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $251 4d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $51 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 51¢ $220 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $352 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 31¢ $15 5d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 79¢ $252 5d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $252 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 6d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 73¢ $151 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 8d
Counter-Strike: ODDIK vs Galorys (BO3) - BetBoom RUSH B! Summit Playof BUY Galorys 23¢ $10 113d
Counter-Strike: MANA eSports vs BESTIA (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs BUY MANA eSports 61¢ $50 114d
Counter-Strike: CSDIILIT vs MASONIC (BO3) - CCT Europe Closed Qualifi BUY MASONIC 88¢ $160 114d
Will Trump say "Border" 7+ times during the 2026 State of the Union ad BUY No 17¢ $5 115d
Will Trump say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 15+ times during t BUY No 10¢ $10 115d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-02-23? BUY Yes 42¢ $26 116d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.16 · official $209.16 (match) · 76 history records