trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 6 | +0.2% | -9.3% | 100% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤30d | 9 | +0.4% | -9.1% | 100% | 0% | -9.1% |
| ≤90d | 23 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 100% | 0% | -9.0% |
| all | 23 | +0.6% | -9.0% | 100% | 0% | -9.0% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.0% | 0% | -9.0% |
| 10% | -17.7% | 0% | -17.7% |
| 15% | -25.7% | 0% | -25.6% |
| 20% | -32.9% | 0% | -32.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? | No | 100¢ | 100¢ | $2,004 | $2,005 | +$1 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? | Jun 18 | $2,000 | +$4 | +0% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet | Jun 17 | $1,990 | +$10 | +0% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? | Jun 12 | $110 | $0 | +0% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? | Jun 12 | $1,559 | +$1 | +0% |
| SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? | Jun 12 | $319 | +$1 | +0% |
| Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? | Jun 12 | $1,986 | +$2 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by June 8? | Jun 12 | $1,984 | +$2 | +0% |
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 04 | $1,967 | +$16 | +1% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? | Jun 01 | $1,935 | +$31 | +2% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? | May 16 | $1,921 | +$15 | +1% |
| Will the Fed cut rates before Kevin Warsh is confirmed as Fed Chair? | May 14 | $993 | +$7 | +1% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before Kevin Warsh is confirmed | May 13 | $907 | +$14 | +2% |
| Will a U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the United States occur b | May 05 | $1,896 | +$4 | +0% |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | May 01 | $1,891 | +$6 | +0% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee | Apr 29 | $1,878 | +$12 | +1% |
| U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by April 30? | Apr 25 | $443 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 18, 2026? | Apr 21 | $443 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump post "Make Iran Great Again" or "MIGA" on Truth Social this | Apr 20 | $1,430 | +$4 | +0% |
| Will "Donk" be said during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final? | Apr 17 | $436 | +$7 | +2% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Apr 10 | $1,859 | +$7 | +0% |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? | Apr 06 | $1,840 | +$19 | +1% |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Mar 27 | $1,812 | +$28 | +2% |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee | Mar 22 | $1,805 | +$7 | +0% |