Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:15:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde90…b3f1 other 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,254 (-25%) realized +$257 · open −$2,511
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate71%10W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$608per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit7%portable
Net worth$5,642now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$253
7 days−$240
14 days−$67
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 99% −$2,596
sports 1% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-3.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -21.7% -29.1% 67% 50% -44.0%
≤30d 14 +6.2% -3.9% 71% 57% -17.6%
≤90d 14 +6.2% -3.9% 71% 57% -17.6%
all 14 +6.2% -3.9% 71% 57% -17.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.9% 57% -17.6%
10% -13.1% 29% -25.4%
15% -21.5% 21% -32.6%
20% -29.2% 14% -39.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 75% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +63% → late -51% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$23 vs −$74 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$5,642
Realized+$257
Unrealized−$2,511
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses10 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 15
History coverage11d
Avg bet$608
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit7%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $8,154 $5,642 −$2,511 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $63 +$18 +29%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $56 +$7 +13%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 23 $99 −$99 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 23 $121 −$121 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $55 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $38 +$17 +46%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $38 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $33 +$4 +13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $28 +$5 +17%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $22 +$5 +21%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $29 +$70 +238%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $94 +$103 +109%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 77¢ $63 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 88¢ $56 6h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 100¢ $55 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $38 30h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 100¢ $38 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $33 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 85¢ $28 3d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $22 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $3,471 7d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $99 8d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $29 9d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $4,899 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $121 10d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 83¢ $50 10d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $26 10d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $94 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,642.46 · official $5,642.46 (match) · 40 history records