Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:58:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
DE 0xde90…d417 crypto 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$118 (-0%) realized −$118 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate80%51W / 13L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$500per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$868
7 days−$770
14 days−$770
30 days−$770
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$3,584
sports 4% +$189
other 2% +$1,818
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +16.0% +5.0% 76% 48% -14.5%
≤30d 25 +16.0% +5.0% 76% 48% -14.5%
≤90d 64 +7.5% -2.8% 80% 33% -14.0%
all 64 +7.5% -2.8% 80% 33% -14.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 33% -14.0%
10% -12.1% 20% -22.2%
15% -20.6% 16% -29.7%
20% -28.3% 16% -36.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$847) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$477 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$118
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses51 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 64
History coverage66d
Avg bet$500
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions (10 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 21 $33 −$33 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 21 $9 +$24 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 20 $1,435 −$1,400 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $624 +$1,818 +291%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $1,704 −$1,695 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 19 $1,358 +$115 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 19 $1,456 +$85 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 19 $1,459 +$139 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 19 $1,209 +$140 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 19 $908 +$119 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 19 $1,012 +$191 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 19 $106 −$103 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 19 $374 −$370 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 19 $295 +$87 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 19 $276 +$16 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 18 $98 +$181 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 18 $377 −$370 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $221 +$146 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 18 $216 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 18 $215 +$2 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $190 +$29 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 18 $152 +$35 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $91 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $127 +$28 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 18 $99 +$29 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 19 $174 −$170 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET May 19 $111 +$69 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 19 $206 −$199 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 19 $119 +$86 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET May 19 $1,043 +$46 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET May 19 $1,092 −$1,090 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 19 $1,008 +$36 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET May 19 $982 +$30 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 19 $933 +$47 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET May 19 $891 +$44 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET May 19 $847 +$24 +3%
Canadiens vs. Sabres May 19 $714 +$132 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 19 $869 +$20 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET May 18 $700 +$7 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET May 18 $696 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 18 $661 +$37 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 18 $623 +$37 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 18 $592 +$30 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 18 $553 +$38 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET May 18 $522 +$26 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 18 $522 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 18 $222 +$300 +135%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET May 18 $139 +$83 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 18 $55 +$84 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET May 18 $24 +$32 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $9 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $253 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $1,183 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 25¢ $624 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $1,704 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1,439 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $17 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $615 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $844 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $89 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $1,269 37h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $1,209 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $933 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $79 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $908 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $106 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $374 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $295 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $276 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $98 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $377 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $221 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $216 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $215 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $190 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $152 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $127 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $99 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $91 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 144 history records