Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:36:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde8f…7f60 world 42 markets active 2d ago coverage 300d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate29%12W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$5
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% +$6
other 33% −$2
finance 5% $0
sports 4% −$1
politics 3% −$1
economics 3% $0
culture 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +2.0% -7.7% 22% 11% -8.3%
≤30d 16 +1.3% -8.4% 31% 6% -8.6%
≤90d 17 +1.2% -8.4% 29% 6% -8.6%
all 41 -4.9% -14.0% 29% 2% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.0% 2% -9.4%
10% -22.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -29.7% 0% -26.0%
20% -36.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 64% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

300d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses12 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)41 / 42
History coverage300d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 16 $43 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $43 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $5 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $34 +$6 +16%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $76 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 11 $2 $0 +5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $123 −$1 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $41 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $42 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $39 +$1 +2%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $84 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 06 $13 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $37 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $42 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 24 $7 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 17 $3 −$2 -60%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 26 $3 −$1 -30%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 24 $10 $0 -1%
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? Oct 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $10 $0 +4%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Sep 25 $10 $0 +1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 23 $5 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Aug 22 $1 $0 -18%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Aug 22 $2 $0 -1%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 22 $4 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan in 2025? Aug 22 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump try to fire Powell by August 31? Aug 21 $14 $0 -0%
Will António Guterres win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 21 $14 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 21 $14 −$1 -8%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 20 $29 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 20 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $37 39h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $6 39h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $27 40h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $16 40h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $21 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $22 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $43 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $3 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 50¢ $40 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $2 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 43¢ $32 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $38 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $38 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $38 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $38 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 32¢ $41 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 32¢ $41 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $35 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL No 81¢ $6 6d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 81¢ $41 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 58¢ $42 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.31 · official $0.00 (match) · 139 history records