Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:16:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DE 0xde8d…ab74 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 387d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$59 (-6%) realized −$71 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$162now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$59
14 days+$124
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$136
politics 46% −$110
world 7% −$78
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -43.2% -48.6% 33% 33% -32.5%
≤30d 8 -29.0% -35.8% 38% 38% -19.3%
≤90d 8 -29.0% -35.8% 38% 38% -19.3%
all 9 -25.2% -32.3% 44% 33% -15.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.3% 33% -15.9%
10% -38.8% 22% -23.9%
15% -44.7% 22% -31.3%
20% -50.1% 22% -38.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 90% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -11% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$69 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

387d coverage
Net worth$162
Realized−$71
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage387d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 97¢ $100 $113 +$13 (+13%)
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 82¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $31 −$30 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$71 +70%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $115 +$182 +158%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 04 $168 −$127 -75%
Will Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election? Jun 04 $101 +$15 +15%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 03 $80 −$78 -98%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 02 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $211 +$12 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $162.37 · official $162.37 (match) · 21 history records