Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T22:50:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde8c…8a7a sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$62 (-4%) realized −$75 · open +$13
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%8W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$95per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$94
7 days−$78
14 days−$78
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% +$53
other 8% −$117
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -11.0% -19.5% 53% 53% -14.9%
≤30d 15 -11.0% -19.5% 53% 53% -14.9%
≤90d 15 -11.0% -19.5% 53% 53% -14.9%
all 15 -11.0% -19.5% 53% 53% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 53% -14.9%
10% -27.2% 47% -23.0%
15% -34.2% 33% -30.5%
20% -40.7% 33% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 54% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late +5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$70 · ×0.74 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$13
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses8 / 7
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 18
History coverage13d
Avg bet$95
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Under 47¢ 54¢ $94 $107 +$13 (+14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 24 $100 +$14 +14%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $59 +$53 +89%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $32 −$31 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $119 +$90 +76%
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners Jun 23 $63 +$56 +88%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 23 $132 −$69 -52%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $105 +$27 +26%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $81 +$24 +29%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 22 $83 −$83 -100%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $199 −$199 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $202 +$131 +65%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $49 −$35 -71%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $20 +$14 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $95 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $115 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $100 1h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $111 1h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 50¢ $20 2h
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 39¢ $11 2h
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 52¢ $59 3h
Switzerland vs. Canada: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 3h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 56¢ $119 23h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners SELL Over 100¢ $119 24h
England vs. Ghana: England O/U 6.5 Corners BUY Over 52¢ $63 25h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 31¢ $63 25h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 63¢ $132 27h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 100¢ $132 27h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 79¢ $105 28h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 77¢ $81 44h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 46¢ $5 45h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 27¢ $15 45h
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND New Zea BUY 44¢ $241 3d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $202 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 54¢ $83 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 4d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U BUY 48¢ $61 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $34 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $49 4d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Team Falcons 58¢ $20 4d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $199 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.86 · official $106.86 (match) · 32 history records