Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:25:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde80…d8b9 sports 245 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$8,523 (-16%) realized −$9,161 · open +$355
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate31%76W / 168L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$213per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Fees−$672est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$902now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$743
7 days+$43
14 days+$43
30 days+$286
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$5,342
other 18% −$3,201
world 0% −$196
crypto 0% −$67
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -17.6% -25.5% 30% 30% -7.9%
≤30d 14 -17.3% -25.2% 29% 29% -1.7%
≤90d 244 -14.8% -22.9% 31% 30% -26.0%
all 244 -14.8% -22.9% 31% 30% -26.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 30% -26.0%
10% -30.3% 30% -33.1%
15% -37.0% 28% -39.5%
20% -43.2% 27% -45.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -24% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$293 vs −$187 · ×1.57 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$902
Realized−$9,161
Unrealized+$355
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses76 / 168
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$672
Open positions1
Markets (closed)244 / 245
History coverage88d
Avg bet$213
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 244 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Sweden 27¢ 44¢ $547 $902 +$355 (+65%)
Madrid Open, Qualification: Zsombor Piros vs Tomas Barrios Tomas Barrios 21¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo Daniel Altmaier 23¢ $266 $0 −$266 (-100%)
Madrid Open, Qualification: Adolfo Vallejo vs Pedro Martinez Pedro Martinez 25¢ $158 $0 −$158 (-100%)
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-24? Yes 74¢ $412 $0 −$412 (-100%)
Madrid Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Casper Ruud Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 29¢ $221 $0 −$221 (-100%)
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Switzerland 17¢ $150 $0 −$150 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Raptors 17¢ $90 $0 −$90 (-100%)
Will Sunderland AFC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC end in a draw? Yes 16¢ $85 $0 −$85 (-100%)
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Timberwolves 32¢ $196 $0 −$196 (-100%)
Madrid Open, Qualification: Elmer Moeller vs Hugo Gaston Hugo Gaston 60¢ $494 $0 −$494 (-100%)
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Spurs 35¢ $104 $0 −$104 (-100%)
Will Udinese Calcio vs. Parma Calcio 1913 end in a draw? Yes 15¢ $97 $0 −$97 (-100%)
Will Getafe CF vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw? Yes 33¢ $213 $0 −$213 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Hawks Hawks 22¢ $228 $0 −$228 (-100%)
Will Brazil vs. Panama end in a draw? Yes 14¢ $215 $0 −$215 (-100%)
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ethan Quinn vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz Ethan Quinn 20¢ $158 $0 −$158 (-100%)
Will Chelsea FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Yes 27¢ $98 $0 −$98 (-100%)
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Raptors 15¢ $97 $0 −$97 (-100%)
Valencia vs. Panathinaikos Panathinaikos 30¢ $73 $0 −$73 (-100%)
Hawks vs. Knicks Hawks 32¢ $197 $0 −$197 (-100%)
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Trail Blazers 35¢ $294 $0 −$294 (-100%)
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-11? Yes 63¢ $495 $0 −$495 (-100%)
Madrid Open, Qualification: Billy Harris vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Billy Harris 13¢ $65 $0 −$65 (-100%)
Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? Yes 30¢ $112 $0 −$112 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $223 +$337 +152%
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 14 $335 −$330 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 13 $335 −$330 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $277 −$270 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) Jun 13 $154 −$150 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 12 $244 −$240 -98%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $404 +$941 +233%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 11 $144 −$140 -98%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $229 +$319 +139%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $96 −$94 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Panama end in a draw? May 31 $221 −$215 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev May 31 $245 −$240 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) May 31 $342 +$802 +234%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) May 26 $106 −$104 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Karen Khachanov May 13 $200 −$195 -97%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $294 −$287 -98%
Will CA Belgrano vs. CA Unión end in a draw? May 12 $275 −$270 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $297 +$472 +158%
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-12? May 12 $78 −$76 -98%
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Real Madrid May 07 $99 −$97 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Cristian Garin vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo May 07 $103 −$100 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Roman Andres Burruchaga vs Mattia Bellucc May 07 $23 −$23 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ethan Quinn vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz May 07 $162 −$158 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jacob Fearnley vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perric May 07 $165 +$221 +134%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Nikoloz Basilashvili vs Daniel Merida Agu May 07 $321 −$317 -99%
76ers vs. Knicks May 07 $591 −$579 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks: 1H Moneyline May 07 $539 −$530 -98%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 06 $317 +$1,400 +442%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $1,011 −$990 -98%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors May 02 $501 −$290 -58%
Pistons vs. Magic May 02 $128 +$685 +534%
Will Girona FC vs. RCD Mallorca end in a draw? May 01 $266 −$260 -98%
Real Madrid vs. Hapoel Tel Aviv May 01 $301 −$295 -98%
Celtics vs. 76ers May 01 $592 −$190 -32%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 30 $233 −$228 -98%
Valencia vs. Panathinaikos Apr 30 $244 +$385 +157%
Will SC Braga vs. SC Freiburg end in a draw? Apr 30 $194 +$115 +59%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace end in a draw? Apr 30 $201 −$197 -98%
Will Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC end in a draw? Apr 30 $204 −$200 -98%
Madrid Open: Casper Ruud vs Alexander Blockx Apr 30 $179 +$385 +215%
Mauthausen: Martin Krumich vs Jaime Faria Apr 30 $299 +$677 +226%
Madrid Open: Arthur Fils vs Jiri Lehecka Apr 29 $49 −$48 -97%
Real Madrid vs. Hapoel Tel Aviv Apr 29 $157 −$154 -98%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $194 −$190 -98%
Madrid Open: Jannik Sinner vs Rafael Jodar Apr 29 $57 −$56 -98%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 29 $163 +$594 +365%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München end in a draw? Apr 28 $226 −$221 -98%
Madrid Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Daniel Merida Aguilar Apr 27 $226 −$222 -98%
Madrid Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Casper Ruud Apr 27 $226 −$221 -98%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $801 −$787 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 27¢ $294 1h
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) BUY Sweden 27¢ $266 2h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $560 4h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $223 5h
Jalen Brunson: Points O/U 27.5 BUY No 51¢ $335 26h
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Spurs 46¢ $335 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $128 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $149 28h
Spread: Switzerland (-3.5) BUY Switzerland 17¢ $154 32h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $244 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,345 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $198 2d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $206 2d
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) BUY Czechia 13¢ $144 3d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) SELL Mexico 100¢ $548 3d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 27¢ $96 3d
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) BUY Mexico 41¢ $229 3d
Will Brazil vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $92 14d
Will Brazil vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $128 14d
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Andrey Rublev BUY Andrey Rublev 37¢ $245 14d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) SELL Spurs 99¢ $1,144 14d
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) BUY Spurs 29¢ $342 15d
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) BUY Spurs 35¢ $106 19d
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Karen Khachanov BUY Karen Khachanov 12¢ $200 32d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Timberwolves 22¢ $97 33d
Timberwolves vs. Spurs BUY Timberwolves 22¢ $196 33d
Will CA Belgrano vs. CA Unión end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $275 33d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? SELL Yes 95¢ $769 33d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-12? BUY Yes 36¢ $297 33d
Will Southampton FC win on 2026-05-12? BUY Yes 17¢ $78 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $902.31 · official $902.31 (match) · 448 history records