Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:02:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde7f…7a36 politics 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 172d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%1W / 23L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$150per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 43% −$2
other 20% $0
sports 20% −$1
crypto 7% $0
culture 5% $0
tech 3% $0
economics 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 11 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 24 -0.1% -9.6% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

172d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses1 / 23
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage172d
Avg bet$150
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $88 $0 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $273 −$1 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $89 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $90 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 19 $90 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 16 $90 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $90 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $90 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 17 $91 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $91 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 27 $183 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 21 $184 $0 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 20 $184 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Mar 18 $184 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 15 $184 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 13 $184 $0 +0%
Will Train Dreams win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 10 $184 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 06 $184 $0 +0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 29 $176 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Jan 04 $173 $0 -0%
Will Oviedo win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 03 $175 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 02 $177 $0 -0%
Will the Utah Jazz win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 01 $177 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 in December? Dec 30 $178 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $88 1h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $86 16h
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $2 16h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $88 13d
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $89 14d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $89 21d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $89 22d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $89 28d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $90 28d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $90 31d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $39 31d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $50 31d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $90 33d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $90 34d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $90 38d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $90 38d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $90 42d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $90 43d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? SELL No 100¢ $91 62d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $75 63d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY No 100¢ $16 63d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $91 65d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $91 66d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $183 84d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $183 84d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $183 90d
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $184 90d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $184 91d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $184 91d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? SELL No 100¢ $184 93d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 104 history records