Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:41:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
DE 0xde7d…9ba5 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,151 (-20%) realized −$1,133 · open −$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate40%2W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$806per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Fees−$56est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$1,982now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$129
7 days−$1,114
14 days−$1,080
30 days−$1,080
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 56% −$269
other 44% −$828
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-44.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -50.3% -55.0% 25% 25% -42.6%
≤30d 5 -39.0% -44.8% 40% 20% -36.6%
≤90d 5 -39.0% -44.8% 40% 20% -36.6%
all 5 -39.0% -44.8% 40% 20% -36.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.8% 20% -36.6%
10% -50.1% 0% -42.6%
15% -54.9% 0% -48.2%
20% -59.3% 0% -53.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 86% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt -30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$122 vs −$441 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.18 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$1,982
Realized−$1,133
Unrealized−$18
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses2 / 3
Est. fees paid−$56
Open positions2
Markets (closed)5 / 7
History coverage7d
Avg bet$806
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $1,000 $992 −$8 (-1%)
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $1,000 $990 −$10 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $98 −$81 -82%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $1,074 +$210 +20%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,054 −$470 -44%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $823 −$774 -94%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $564 +$34 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $1,011 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1,015 1h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? SELL Yes 3¢ $17 2h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 86¢ $1,285 2h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $98 10h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 71¢ $1,074 10h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 31¢ $585 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $547 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $507 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 5¢ $50 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $161 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $201 6d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $461 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $598 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $29 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $16 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $6 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $5 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $8 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $472 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,982.19 · official $1,982.19 (match) · 25 history records