Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T11:02:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
DE 0xde7b…41fc sports 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 622d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$356 (+7%) realized +$357 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate31%13W / 29L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$1,132now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$28
14 days+$28
30 days+$28
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 82% −$10
sports 16% +$331
other 2% +$33
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)+0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +9.7% -0.7% 20% 20% -8.8%
≤30d 5 +9.7% -0.7% 20% 20% -8.8%
≤90d 5 +9.7% -0.7% 20% 20% -8.8%
all 42 +11.5% +0.9% 31% 29% -2.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.9% 29% -2.0%
10% -8.7% 29% -11.4%
15% -17.6% 29% -20.0%
20% -25.6% 26% -27.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$11 · ×4.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.25 per $1 lost it wins $2.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

622d coverage
Net worth$1,132
Realized+$357
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses13 / 29
Open positions2
Markets (closed)42 / 44
History coverage622d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $733 $733 −$0 (-0%)
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $400 $400 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $478 −$1 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $1,125 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $1,030 −$2 -0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $67 +$33 +49%
Hawks vs. Pacers Oct 31 $11 −$11 -100%
Magic vs. Hornets Oct 31 $8 +$6 +72%
Guardians vs. Tigers Sep 17 $19 +$24 +127%
Chargers vs. Raiders Sep 16 $9 +$5 +56%
Tigers vs. White Sox Sep 11 $9 +$7 +79%
Will Solana reach $220 in June? Jul 15 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 07 $6 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Bruins win the 2025 President’s Trophy? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2025 President’s Trophy? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? May 06 $6 $0 -0%
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 05 $5 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? May 02 $6 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 30 $5 $0 -1%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 28 $5 $0 -2%
Will Lee Jae-myung be elected the next president of South Korea? Apr 27 $4 $0 -3%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Inter Milan win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 17 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $5 $0 -0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 09 $4 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $2 $0 -3%
Will Mark Carney be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 08 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 03 $4 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 02 $1 $0 -4%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? Apr 01 $2 $0 -6%
Texas Tech vs. Arkansas Dec 30 $101 +$109 +108%
Heat vs. Magic Dec 27 $102 +$114 +111%
South Florida vs. San José State Dec 26 $101 +$139 +138%
Will Pearse Doherty be the next Prime Minister of Ireland? Dec 24 $3 −$2 -67%
Blues vs. Canucks Dec 11 $214 −$214 -100%
Bulls vs. Spurs Dec 10 $96 +$117 +122%
Lakers vs. Heat Dec 05 $54 +$43 +79%
Grizzlies vs. Mavericks Dec 04 $30 +$20 +65%
WNBA: Lynx vs. Sun Series Winner Oct 16 $49 −$49 -100%
WNBA: Liberty vs. Aces Game 3 Oct 07 $35 +$23 +65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $400 1h
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $733 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $477 1h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $654 1h
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $478 4h
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $655 4h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,124 4h
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,125 16h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,029 16h
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,030 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $67 42h
Hawks vs. Pacers BUY Pacers 45¢ $11 229d
Magic vs. Hornets BUY Magic 58¢ $8 231d
Guardians vs. Tigers BUY Guardians 44¢ $19 274d
Chargers vs. Raiders BUY Chargers 64¢ $9 276d
Tigers vs. White Sox BUY Tigers 56¢ $9 308d
Will Solana reach $220 in June? BUY No 100¢ $4 359d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? SELL No 94¢ $5 400d
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $5 400d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? SELL No 99¢ $5 401d
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? BUY No 99¢ $5 402d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $5 405d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $5 406d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? SELL No 99¢ $6 406d
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? BUY No 99¢ $6 407d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? SELL No 100¢ $6 407d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 408d
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 100¢ $5 408d
Will Andrea Kimi Antonelli be the 2025 Drivers Champion? BUY No 100¢ $5 409d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2025 Drivers Champion? SELL No 99¢ $5 411d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,132.43 · official $1,132.43 (match) · 86 history records