Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T17:52:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde78…258f other 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$560 (-20%) realized −$598 · open +$38
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$17
7 days−$144
14 days−$115
30 days−$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$494
crypto 33% +$16
sports 13% +$1
politics 3% +$6
tech 3% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -9.2% -17.8% 44% 44% -41.6%
≤30d 11 +18.7% +7.4% 45% 45% -33.8%
≤90d 11 +18.7% +7.4% 45% 45% -33.8%
all 26 -3.7% -12.9% 50% 31% -26.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 31% -26.2%
10% -21.2% 27% -33.2%
15% -28.8% 23% -39.7%
20% -35.8% 23% -45.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 66% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -27% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$74 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.48 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$598
Unrealized+$38
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage234d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ $0 $38 +$38 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $33 +$17 +52%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $53 −$3 -6%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $21 +$6 +31%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $50 −$50 -98%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $41 −$41 -99%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $107 −$106 -99%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $50 +$50 +101%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $41 −$40 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$21 +140%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06 Jun 15 $10 +$40 +388%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2025-11-25? Dec 31 $64 −$64 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-24? Dec 31 $52 −$52 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-30? Dec 31 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Tunisia win on 2025-12-30? Dec 31 $243 −$243 -100%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2025-12-30? Dec 31 $238 −$238 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 23 $531 +$5 +1%
Will Elche CF win on 2025-12-07? Dec 10 $198 +$252 +127%
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 November 24-30? Dec 01 $145 +$5 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Dec 01 $158 +$2 +1%
Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-27? Nov 28 $62 +$38 +61%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Nov 25 $180 −$28 -16%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 25 $77 −$2 -3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $98,000 on November 15? Nov 24 $107 +$3 +3%
Will Trump create a tariff dividend in 2025? Nov 15 $88 +$6 +7%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Nov 13 $78 +$8 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $43 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND W BUY 33¢ $51 25h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $33 47h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 56¢ $50 2d
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $21 2d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $53 2d
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 45¢ $50 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $41 4d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $107 4d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $50 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $41 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY 41¢ $15 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $10 8d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 2.5 AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06 BUY 20¢ $10 8d
Will West Ham United FC win on 2025-12-30? BUY Yes 28¢ $238 173d
Will Tunisia win on 2025-12-30? BUY Yes 81¢ $238 174d
Will Tunisia win on 2025-12-30? BUY Yes 81¢ $5 174d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 99¢ $471 181d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 99¢ $8 181d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 99¢ $0 181d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 99¢ $25 181d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 99¢ $30 181d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? SELL No 99¢ $1 181d
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 98¢ $531 183d
Will Elche CF win on 2025-12-07? BUY Yes 44¢ $19 197d
Will Elche CF win on 2025-12-07? BUY Yes 44¢ $47 197d
Will Elche CF win on 2025-12-07? BUY Yes 44¢ $132 197d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-30? BUY No 40¢ $80 204d
Will AS Roma win on 2025-11-27? BUY Yes 62¢ $62 207d
Will Bitcoin reach $98,000 November 24-30? BUY No 96¢ $8 208d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.27 · official $38.27 (match) · 76 history records