Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:03:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde77…004a crypto 1287 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,685 (+7%) realized +$1,684 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%614W / 839L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day57.8pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 49d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% +$2,605
sports 7% −$299
tech 2% +$33
world 0% −$27
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 499 -55.4% -59.7% 19% 19% -57.8%
≤30d 1109 -15.2% -23.3% 40% 40% -21.3%
≤90d 1453 -11.4% -19.8% 42% 42% -19.5%
all 1453 -11.4% -19.8% 42% 42% -19.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.8% 42% -19.5%
10% ← realistic here -27.5% 42% -27.2%
15% -34.5% 41% -34.2%
20% -40.9% 40% -40.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$16 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized+$1,684
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses614 / 839
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1453 / 1287
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$19
Trades / day57.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1453 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team WE win the LPL 2026 season? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $78 −$78 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$46 -2963%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 22, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 26, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 1, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 29, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 23, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 27, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
LoL: LYON vs JD Gaming (BO5) - First Stand Group B Jun 17 $16 −$4 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 12AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$6 +484%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 25, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 16, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 28, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 5AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 29, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$9 -250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 25, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 9, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 25, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 8PM ET Jun 17 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 14, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$27 -1836%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $10 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $3 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 47¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $11 5h
Will Team WE win the LPL 2026 season? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Up 12¢ $6 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $16 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12PM ET BUY Up 26¢ $11 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $15 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 11¢ $12 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $24 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET SELL Up 97¢ $24 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $20 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $10 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $14 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.92 · official $6.92 (match) · 3500 history records