Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:15:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5

score

DE 0xde77…cb68 other 6 markets active 0h ago coverage 107d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL −$179 (-47%) realized −$164 · open −$15

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -96% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -96% what you keep after slip

Net edge-96%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate0%0W / 5L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$64per market

Trades / day0.1pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit50%portable

Net worth$83now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 107d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-96.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-93.0%	-93.6%	0%	0%	-88.7%
≤30d	3	-93.0%	-93.6%	0%	0%	-88.7%
≤90d	3	-93.0%	-93.6%	0%	0%	-88.7%
all	5	-95.8%	-96.2%	0%	0%	-93.1%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.1 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-96.2%	0%	-93.1%
10%	-96.5%	0%	-93.7%
15%	-96.9%	0%	-94.3%
20%	-97.2%	0%	-94.9%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top —% · top 2 —% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -88% too few recent

Fragile wins

—% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -96% · $-wt -92% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

— vs −$52 no data

Profit factor

×0.0 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage

Net worth$83

Realized−$164

Unrealized−$15

Win rate (resolved)0%

Wins / losses0 / 5

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions1

Markets (closed)5 / 6

History coverage107d

Avg bet$64

Trades / day0.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	10¢	8¢	$97	$83	−$15 (-15%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 18	$102	−$81	-79%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	Jun 17	$41	−$40	-98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$31	−$30	-98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 3?	Mar 03	$58	−$58	-100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 3?	Mar 03	$51	−$51	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	10¢	$100	23m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	SELL Yes	6¢	$22	24m
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	27¢	$102	1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$10	11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	18¢	$31	11h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw?	BUY Yes	26¢	$31	11h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on March 3?	BUY Yes	18¢	$51	106d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on March 3?	BUY Yes	10¢	$58	107d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $82.75 · official $82.75 (match) · 10 history records