Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T18:00:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DE 0xde76…c533 sports 71 markets active 1h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,698 (-12%) realized −$2,705 · open +$7
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate50%35W / 35L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$310per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$35est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$107now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$200
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 60% −$2,162
sports 17% −$332
other 10% −$334
finance 6% −$63
weather 3% −$92
politics 3% +$333
crypto 1% +$52
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -0.5% -9.9% 67% 67% -9.5%
≤30d 15 -0.5% -9.9% 67% 67% -9.5%
≤90d 62 -16.8% -24.7% 50% 47% -21.7%
all 70 -13.6% -21.9% 50% 46% -20.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 46% -20.3%
10% -29.3% 36% -27.9%
15% -36.2% 19% -34.9%
20% -42.4% 9% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$87 vs −$162 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$107
Realized−$2,705
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses35 / 35
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)70 / 71
History coverage110d
Avg bet$310
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 70 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Yes 65¢ 69¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $79 +$28 +36%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $304 −$300 -98%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $50 +$13 +26%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $303 +$159 +52%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $101 −$100 -99%
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $303 −$300 -99%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $453 +$131 +29%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $452 +$226 +50%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $151 −$16 -11%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $302 −$300 -100%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $303 +$145 +48%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $309 +$111 +36%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $428 +$79 +18%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 21 $234 +$68 +29%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $71 +$56 +79%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 27 $90 −$88 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 27 $90 −$88 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 27 $90 −$88 -98%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 27 $1,697 −$406 -24%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 26 $506 +$178 +35%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 24 $1,800 −$1,800 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 24 $500 −$239 -48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $350 −$164 -47%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 24 $890 +$17 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 24 $505 −$244 -48%
Iran closes its airspace by May 21? May 22 $1,200 +$179 +15%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Q May 21 $502 −$500 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 21? May 21 $92 −$61 -66%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $940 −$230 -24%
Will Ed Gallrein be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $203 +$139 +68%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 17 $1,200 +$4 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 16 $1,000 +$220 +22%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 01 $407 +$126 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 29? May 01 $20 +$17 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on April 30? Apr 30 $2 −$2 -95%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 29 $34 −$33 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Top Esports (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 28 $69 −$68 -99%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 27 $800 +$205 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 22? Apr 26 $87 +$12 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 22? Apr 22 $51 −$3 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 26°C on April 21? Apr 21 $39 +$36 +92%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 21? Apr 21 $33 +$8 +26%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on April 20? Apr 20 $10 −$9 -90%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 19? Apr 19 $10 −$3 -28%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 24°C on April 19? Apr 19 $81 +$17 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on April 19? Apr 19 $13 −$5 -42%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 19? Apr 19 $1 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Apr 19 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $374 −$374 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Apr 18 $100 +$87 +87%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 1h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 73¢ $79 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $304 24h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL 99¢ $462 38h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 79¢ $50 40h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $101 41h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 64¢ $303 2d
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $303 2d
Colombia vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 77¢ $453 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 73¢ $135 2d
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $151 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $302 3d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 66¢ $452 3d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 67¢ $303 3d
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 73¢ $309 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 84¢ $428 4d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $71 5d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 77¢ $234 5d
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY EDward Gaming 13¢ $90 30d
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY LGD Gaming 15¢ $90 30d
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY ThunderTalk Gaming 14¢ $90 30d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? SELL No 46¢ $1,120 30d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? SELL No 48¢ $172 30d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? BUY No 61¢ $1,697 31d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? SELL No 95¢ $684 31d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,800 33d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 36¢ $261 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $186 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $100 33d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 49¢ $250 33d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $106.91 · official $106.92 (match) · 165 history records