Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:23:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
DE 0xde76…7d17 sports 231 markets active 2h ago coverage 190d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,425 (-2%) realized −$5,429 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate64%147W / 83L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,430per market
Trades / day8.2pace
Fees−$2,352est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$330now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,403
7 days−$660
14 days−$800
30 days+$566
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$9,580
other 38% +$2,202
world 2% +$99
crypto 0% +$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +0.2% -9.4% 72% 44% -10.4%
≤30d 113 +4.8% -5.2% 63% 47% -9.2%
≤90d 230 -1.1% -10.5% 64% 42% -11.5%
all 230 -1.1% -10.5% 64% 42% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.5% 42% -11.5%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 32% -20.0%
15% -26.9% 25% -27.7%
20% -34.1% 17% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$1,997) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$404 vs −$803 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

190d coverage
Net worth$330
Realized−$5,429
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses147 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$2,352
Open positions1
Markets (closed)230 / 231
History coverage190d
Avg bet$1,430
Trades / day8.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 230 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Terence Atmane 44¢ 44¢ $327 $330 +$4 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,998 +$222 +11%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5,016 +$99 +2%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro Jun 21 $931 +$931 +100%
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur Jun 21 $691 +$8 +1%
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Veronika Erj Jun 21 $323 +$80 +25%
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 21 $829 +$382 +46%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $4,524 +$671 +15%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $2,006 +$444 +22%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,172 +$517 +24%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $320 +$51 +16%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $1,449 −$1,446 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $3,980 +$758 +19%
Grass Court Championships (Doubles): Eikeri/Gleason vs Mertens/Zhang Jun 19 $995 −$989 -99%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $3,998 −$145 -4%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,999 +$529 +26%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Frantzen/Haase vs Cash/Glasspool Jun 18 $604 +$111 +18%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2,643 −$2,643 -100%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5,870 +$490 +8%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Katarina Kuzmova Jun 17 $1,347 +$498 +37%
Grass Court Championships: Jessica Pegula vs Katerina Siniakova Jun 17 $2,002 +$57 +3%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5,022 +$378 +8%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $635 +$59 +9%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $191 −$28 -15%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $4,700 +$1,221 +26%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $4,074 −$4,074 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,720 +$3,334 +194%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3,219 +$146 +4%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $1,495 +$94 +6%
Figueira Da Foz: Susan Bandecchi vs Vera Zvonareva Jun 15 $30 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $440 −$440 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $440 +$28 +6%
Halle Open: Terence Atmane vs Martin Landaluce Jun 15 $18 $0 -1%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $463 +$427 +92%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,450 −$3,890 -87%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $4,492 −$35 -1%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2,402 +$95 +4%
HSBC Championships: Donna Vekic vs Emma Raducanu Jun 14 $941 −$928 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $2,028 −$2,004 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $1,997 +$888 +44%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $189 −$186 -98%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $252 −$67 -27%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Iva Jovic Jun 13 $229 +$26 +11%
Libema Open (Doubles): Aoyama/Liang vs Neel/Olmos Jun 13 $511 +$336 +66%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $720 −$6 -1%
HSBC Championships: Emma Raducanu vs Kamilla Rakhimova Jun 13 $2,991 −$61 -2%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $2,499 +$1,176 +47%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $1,421 −$1,404 -99%
HSBC Championships (Doubles): Danilina/Krunic vs Mihalikova/Nicholls Jun 12 $430 −$426 -99%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $2,102 +$1,198 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane BUY Terence Atmane 44¢ $332 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 90¢ $1,998 12h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 90¢ $5,115 14h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 88¢ $5,016 16h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur SELL Zachary Svajda 80¢ $387 22h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur SELL Zachary Svajda 80¢ $4 22h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur SELL Zachary Svajda 80¢ $128 22h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur SELL Zachary Svajda 80¢ $4 22h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur SELL Zachary Svajda 80¢ $4 22h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur SELL Zachary Svajda 80¢ $4 22h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur SELL Zachary Svajda 80¢ $4 22h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur SELL Zachary Svajda 80¢ $40 22h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur SELL Zachary Svajda 80¢ $120 22h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur SELL Zachary Svajda 80¢ $5 22h
Mallorca Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Damir Dzumhur BUY Zachary Svajda 79¢ $691 22h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova SELL Katerina Siniakova 44¢ $1,211 23h
Bad Homburg Open: Liudmila Samsonova vs Katerina Siniakova BUY Katerina Siniakova 29¢ $829 23h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Emma Navarro BUY Marie Bouzkova 50¢ $931 24h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Veronika Erj BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 80¢ $174 25h
Lexus Eastbourne Open, Qualification: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Veronika Erj BUY Ajla Tomljanovic 80¢ $150 25h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 100¢ $5,195 36h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 87¢ $4,524 39h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL No 93¢ $2,450 40h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 98¢ $1,696 40h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 98¢ $98 40h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 98¢ $98 40h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 98¢ $98 40h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 98¢ $98 40h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 98¢ $98 40h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 98¢ $98 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $330.26 · official $330.26 (match) · 1662 history records