Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:40:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde76…f7f4 other 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$54 (-0%) realized −$54 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate10%17W / 147L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$68now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$19
14 days−$28
30 days−$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 30% −$26
politics 27% −$18
sports 19% −$16
crypto 8% −$2
economics 5% −$3
finance 4% $0
world 4% −$3
culture 2% −$10
tech 2% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.6% -10.1% 9% 0% -10.1%
≤30d 76 -0.6% -10.1% 9% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 152 -0.5% -10.0% 11% 0% -9.9%
all 164 -0.5% -10.0% 10% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$68
Realized−$54
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses17 / 147
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)164 / 165
History coverage99d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $69 $68 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $320 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $244 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $275 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 16 $64 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $168 −$1 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 15 $71 +$1 +2%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $138 −$3 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $111 −$1 -1%
Will Ghana reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $76 −$1 -1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 14 $76 −$1 -2%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun Jun 14 $222 +$1 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $157 −$1 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Ecuador reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $50 −$1 -2%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $110 $0 -0%
Will Angela Rayner be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 12 $51 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? Jun 12 $67 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $51 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $42 $0 -1%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 11 $381 −$5 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $95 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $198 −$1 -1%
Will Paraguay reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $4 $0 -2%
Will a player representing Netherlands be the top goalscorer at the 20 Jun 09 $40 $0 -0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? Jun 09 $95 −$1 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $102 $0 -0%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 06 $43 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 06 $39 −$1 -2%
Will France advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $29 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $48 −$1 -2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 05 $49 −$3 -7%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $61 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 05 $68 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Lautaro Martinez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 04 $11 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $47 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in June? Jun 03 $61 −$1 -1%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $165 −$1 -1%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $126 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 02 $187 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 02 $55 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $189 $0 +0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $103 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $53 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $46 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $313 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $259 −$1 -0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? May 31 $109 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $114 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $69 45m
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $68 1h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $69 6h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $75 6h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $76 14h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $68 15h
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $69 23h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 98¢ $64 24h
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 98¢ $64 30h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $69 30h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $70 37h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $72 38h
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $72 42h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 98¢ $72 42h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $71 2d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $74 2d
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $73 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $65 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $5 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $29 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $69 2d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $70 2d
Will Ghana reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $76 3d
Will Ghana reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $76 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $75 3d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $76 3d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun SELL No 97¢ $71 3d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun BUY No 97¢ $71 3d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $47 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.43 · official $68.43 (match) · 684 history records