Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:20:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde75…ff20 world 51 markets active 1h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate32%16W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$57per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$7
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$8
other 39% −$3
politics 11% $0
finance 2% $0
sports 1% −$11
weather 1% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.9% -10.4% 22% 0% -9.1%
≤30d 30 -1.0% -10.4% 20% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 44 +0.1% -9.4% 32% 5% -9.4%
all 50 -2.0% -11.3% 32% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 4% -9.8%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.4%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses16 / 34
Open positions1
Markets (closed)50 / 51
History coverage491d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $44 $44 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $9 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $48 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $37 $0 -0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $42 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $195 +$8 +4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $52 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $46 −$5 -11%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $48 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $91 +$1 +1%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $7 $0 -2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $90 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $45 +$4 +8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $14 +$1 +9%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $47 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $15 $0 -3%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $42 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $1 $0 -6%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 06 $2 $0 -22%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $43 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $178 −$1 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $55 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 02 $3 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $55 $0 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 31 $68 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 29 $31 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $1 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $45 −$1 -1%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $21 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $45 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 24 $12 +$2 +20%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 22 $24 $0 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $3 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 19 $201 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $72 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 23 $89 −$2 -3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $66 $0 +1%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 22 $66 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 21 $68 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $190 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $87 −$1 -1%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 15 $242 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $264 +$1 +0%
Boston Univ. vs. Lehigh Mar 20 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 56-57°F on February 26? Feb 26 $11 $0 +2%
USC Upstate vs. High Point Feb 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 55-56°F on February 25? Feb 25 $12 −$1 -7%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Feb 25 $12 $0 -3%
Furman vs. Samford Feb 18 $12 $0 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $44 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 4h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 6h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $5 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 31¢ $21 18h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $26 20h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $44 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $44 26h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $4 30h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 31h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $11 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $30 4d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $42 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 58¢ $40 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $15 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $16 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $8 4d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $47 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $47 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 5d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 24¢ $6 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 24¢ $35 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 27¢ $4 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 27¢ $42 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $28 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $20 6d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $48 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.36 · official $43.86 (match) · 211 history records