Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:24:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde74…991b crypto 60 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$66 (-19%) realized −$67 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate46%27W / 32L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day46.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$6now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 59 -2.1% -11.4% 46% 46% -27.7%
≤30d 59 -2.1% -11.4% 46% 46% -27.7%
≤90d 59 -2.1% -11.4% 46% 46% -27.7%
all 59 -2.1% -11.4% 46% 46% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.4% 46% -27.7%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 37% -34.6%
15% -27.6% 36% -40.9%
20% -34.7% 27% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$6 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$6
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses27 / 32
Open positions1
Markets (closed)59 / 60
History coverage2d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day46.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Down 44¢ 52¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$13 +250%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$11 +1074%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$2 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$15 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$9 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$6 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$4 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $3 +$3 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $18 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $10 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Up 80¢ $7 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $4 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.85 · official $6.76 (match) · 135 history records