Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:08:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
DE 0xde73…93ef other 180 markets active 2h ago coverage 171d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,913 (-1%) realized −$1,915 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate21%37W / 141L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,143per market
Trades / day3.1pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$560now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$13
14 days−$40
30 days−$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$191
politics 36% −$102
sports 11% −$1,737
economics 4% −$5
crypto 2% +$25
world 1% +$55
culture 1% −$3
tech 0% $0
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 45 +1.1% -8.5% 9% 4% -9.6%
≤90d 96 -0.8% -10.2% 6% 3% -9.6%
all 178 +3.2% -6.7% 21% 12% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 12% -10.4%
10% -15.6% 12% -19.0%
15% -23.7% 11% -26.8%
20% -31.2% 7% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,651) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +7% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$30 vs −$22 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

171d coverage
Net worth$560
Realized−$1,915
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses37 / 141
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)178 / 180
History coverage171d
Avg bet$1,143
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 178 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 99¢ $282 $283 +$1 (+0%)
Microstrategy delisted from MSCI index by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $276 $277 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 29 $2,792 −$3 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 29 $772 −$1 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 29 $1,741 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $273 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 24 $1,575 −$2 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 24 $875 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? Jun 23 $549 −$1 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $912 −$2 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $2,376 −$4 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $1,021 −$2 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $2,662 −$3 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 20 $7,962 −$8 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 18 $601 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $3,889 −$5 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,618 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,393 −$2 -0%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $1,263 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $3,355 −$4 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $1,522 −$2 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,432 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 13 $1,634 −$2 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $1,292 −$2 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,397 −$2 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $4,316 −$7 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,213 −$3 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $2,945 −$5 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,550 −$2 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $3,110 −$4 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 07 $1,168 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 06 $1,584 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $69 +$129 +188%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 06 $30 +$20 +67%
Spread: Spurs (-2.5) Jun 06 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 04 $658 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $1,177 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $664 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $785 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $764 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-01? Jun 02 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $3,841 −$4 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $37 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 02 $289 +$1 +0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $460 −$1 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $1,231 −$1 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $1,664 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $1,319 −$2 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 26 $418 −$1 -0%
Will David Lammy be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 May 26 $577 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 25 $1,600 −$2 -0%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 25 $54 +$43 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $626 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $627 4h
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $770 5h
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $772 6h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,029 7h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,030 10h
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $282 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $272 2d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $273 2d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $863 5d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $864 5d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $873 5d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $875 5d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 100¢ $548 6d
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $549 6d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $910 6d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $912 6d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $751 7d
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $753 7d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,019 7d
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,021 7d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,102 7d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,104 7d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $721 9d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $722 9d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $600 11d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $601 11d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,385 11d
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,387 11d
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,615 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $560.38 · official $560.38 (match) · 650 history records