Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:57:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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DE 0xde6f…d004 crypto 46 markets active 0h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$234 (+1%) realized +$1,325 · open −$1,091
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%10W / 29L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$704per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,095now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$909
7 days−$2,264
14 days−$2,264
30 days+$122
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% +$2,710
crypto 45% −$3,679
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +53.3% +38.7% 14% 14% -22.4%
≤30d 39 +0.1% -9.4% 26% 26% -9.2%
≤90d 39 +0.1% -9.4% 26% 26% -9.2%
all 39 +0.1% -9.4% 26% 26% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 26% -9.2%
10% -18.1% 26% -17.8%
15% -26.0% 23% -25.8%
20% -33.3% 23% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$808) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +4% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1,666 vs −$570 · ×2.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$1,095
Realized+$1,325
Unrealized−$1,091
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses10 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions7
Markets (closed)39 / 46
History coverage27d
Avg bet$704
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? No 8¢ 6¢ $736 $592 −$144 (-20%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $250 $166 −$84 (-34%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? Yes 6¢ 2¢ $250 $87 −$162 (-65%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $200 $72 −$128 (-64%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $250 $65 −$185 (-74%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $250 $58 −$192 (-77%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 20? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $250 $54 −$196 (-78%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $969 −$909 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 16 $2,457 −$2,310 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $808 +$6,144 +760%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 14 $1,339 −$1,144 -86%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $4,500 −$2,625 -58%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $2,000 −$327 -16%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 12 $4,000 −$1,094 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET May 31 $466 −$466 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 31 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET May 30 $6 +$4 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET May 30 $4 +$4 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET May 30 $2 +$2 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET May 30 $509 −$484 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET May 30 $526 +$179 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET May 30 $263 −$250 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 30 $263 −$250 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET May 30 $367 −$350 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 30 $266 −$250 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 30 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 30 $259 +$221 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET May 30 $256 −$250 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET May 30 $317 −$300 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 30 $107 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET May 30 $371 −$350 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET May 30 $458 −$437 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET May 30 $336 +$434 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 30 $10 −$5 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 30 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 30 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 30 $1,027 −$1,027 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 30 $201 −$201 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET May 30 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET May 30 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 30 $171 −$171 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $3,275 +$2,534 +77%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 25 $600 +$3,447 +574%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 28? May 25 $530 +$3,690 +696%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 25 $3,013 −$2,894 -96%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 24 $32 −$21 -65%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY No 7¢ $266 25m
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY No 8¢ $251 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 6¢ $266 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 3¢ $214 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? BUY No 8¢ $266 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 2¢ $267 2h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 4¢ $267 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 5¢ $171 12h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 6¢ $266 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 3¢ $267 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 5¢ $267 19h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY No 9¢ $531 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 2¢ $34 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 6¢ $266 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 5¢ $13 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 5¢ $267 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $532 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 7¢ $532 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 13¢ $813 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $6,952 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 19¢ $276 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? SELL No 2¢ $195 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY No 8¢ $532 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 9¢ $532 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY No 10¢ $266 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY No 10¢ $266 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY No 10¢ $266 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY No 8¢ $6 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY No 8¢ $4 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 16¢ $1,875 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.