Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T17:26:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DE
0xde6c…e713
crypto · 16 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$10 -8%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$10 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$89
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day17.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 16 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Down 60¢ 100¢ $46 $77 +$31 (+67%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Down 51¢ 100¢ $6 $12 +$6 (+96%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Down 47¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Up 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $24 $0 −$24 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 12 $47 +$31 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 12 $6 +$6 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$2 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$4 +113%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 +$2 +75%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-26.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -18.5% -26.2% 44% 44% -16.8%
≤30d 16 -18.5% -26.2% 44% 44% -16.8%
≤90d 16 -18.5% -26.2% 44% 44% -16.8%
all 16 -18.5% -26.2% 44% 44% -16.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.2% 44% -16.8%
10% -33.3% 44% -24.8%
15% -39.7% 44% -32.1%
20% -45.7% 44% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.71 · official $88.71 (match) · 26 history records