Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:30:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
DE 0xde6b…edd1 crypto 72 markets active 2h ago coverage 263d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$717 (-2%) realized −$723 · open +$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate96%66W / 3L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$448per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$608now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$7
30 days+$70
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% +$94
other 15% −$970
finance 9% +$105
economics 6% +$12
sports 4% +$30
world 2% +$5
politics 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +1.3% -8.4% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 4 +1.5% -8.1% 100% 0% -7.1%
≤90d 14 +2.4% -7.4% 100% 7% -7.6%
all 69 -0.9% -10.3% 96% 1% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.3% 1% -11.6%
10% -18.9% 0% -20.1%
15% -26.7% 0% -27.8%
20% -33.9% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$685) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$386 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

263d coverage
Net worth$608
Realized−$723
Unrealized+$6
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses66 / 3
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)69 / 72
History coverage263d
Avg bet$448
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Trump out as President by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $308 $309 +$0 (+0%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 98¢ $156 $156 −$0 (-0%)
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? No 96¢ 99¢ $138 $143 +$5 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 21 $154 +$2 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $610 +$5 +1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day Jun 04 $152 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 04 $1,653 +$62 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 24 $604 +$6 +1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? Apr 27 $85 $0 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 26 $516 +$2 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 26 $209 +$3 +2%
Texas Rangers vs. Seattle Mariners Apr 19 $85 +$1 +1%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Houston Astros Apr 19 $1,147 +$30 +3%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 19 $570 +$2 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Apr 08 $177 +$32 +18%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $40 by end of March? Mar 31 $991 +$7 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of March? Mar 25 $137 +$2 +1%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Mar 23 $1,617 −$1,055 -65%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 March 16-22? Mar 19 $422 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? Mar 11 $661 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 March 2-8? Mar 07 $758 +$39 +5%
Opinion FDV above $250M one day after launch? Mar 05 $720 +$39 +5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 in February? Feb 22 $711 +$9 +1%
Will the government shutdown last 60 days or more? Feb 05 $10 $0 +1%
Will the government shutdown last 30 days or more? Feb 05 $10 $0 +3%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 03 $685 +$6 +1%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of January? Jan 30 $700 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 in January? Jan 29 $689 +$12 +2%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 04 $82 +$7 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 29 $314 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 24 $676 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 23 $341 +$34 +10%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 16 $649 +$27 +4%
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025? Dec 08 $79 +$3 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November? Dec 01 $137 +$3 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November? Dec 01 $193 +$8 +4%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in November? Nov 27 $645 +$4 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 November 17-23? Nov 21 $102 −$102 -100%
Will CZ return to Binance by December 31? Nov 16 $100 +$2 +2%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Nov 10 $235 +$9 +4%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 10 $613 +$4 +1%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Nov 09 $321 +$12 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on November 4? Nov 03 $612 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $250 October 27-November 2? Nov 03 $612 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on October 31? Nov 01 $275 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on October 31? Nov 01 $335 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Oct 31 $821 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Oct 30 $811 +$10 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 October 13-19? Oct 21 $78 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $120,000 on October 20? Oct 19 $563 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $122,000 on October 20? Oct 18 $85 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $124,000 on October 20? Oct 18 $263 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $124,000 October 13-19? Oct 18 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY No 98¢ $156 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $156 38h
Trump out as President by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $308 5d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $116 8d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $193 8d
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day SELL No 99¢ $153 19d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $612 19d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $154 20d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $28 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $105 22d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $21 22d
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day BUY No 98¢ $152 25d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $153 25d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $610 28d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? SELL No 100¢ $609 30d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? BUY No 99¢ $604 47d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $293 51d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $57 51d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $44 51d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $75 51d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $15 52d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $30 52d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $20 52d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 96¢ $60 52d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 95¢ $1,049 54d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 95¢ $510 55d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $132 55d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April? SELL No 100¢ $86 56d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $22 56d
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $3,400 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $22 56d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $607.54 · official $607.54 (match) · 369 history records