Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T21:21:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
DE 0xde68…4b16 other 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$102 (-8%) realized +$96 · open −$198
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +33% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate41%9W / 13L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit45%portable
Net worth$507now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$237
14 days+$237
30 days+$237
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$89
sports 31% +$126
crypto 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+20.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +32.9% +20.3% 41% 41% +40.1%
≤30d 22 +32.9% +20.3% 41% 41% +40.1%
≤90d 22 +32.9% +20.3% 41% 41% +40.1%
all 22 +32.9% +20.3% 41% 41% +40.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +20.3% 41% +40.1%
10% +8.8% 41% +26.7%
15% -1.8% 41% +14.5%
20% -11.4% 36% +3.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 55% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +55% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +33% · $-wt +55% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +53% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$11 · ×3.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.7 per $1 lost it wins $2.7
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$507
Realized+$96
Unrealized−$198
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses9 / 13
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions19
Markets (closed)22 / 44
History coverage16d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit45%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $400 $274 −$126 (-31%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Uruguay 42¢ 42¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $35 $35 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Belgium 44¢ 24¢ $53 $29 −$23 (-44%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Over 58¢ 56¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+11%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) Uruguay 20¢ 20¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 20¢ $25 $9 −$16 (-63%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 60¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 Over 28¢ 28¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 3¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-26%)
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) Uruguay 9¢ 8¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-6%)
Federico Viñas: 1+ goals Yes 35¢ 18¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Will Pedri be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $6 $2 −$4 (-62%)
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals Yes 45¢ 18¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-61%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 1¢ $10 $2 −$8 (-81%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-85%)
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-85%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals Jun 21 $5 −$1 -19%
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $7 −$6 -90%
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $7 −$6 -84%
Koki Ogawa: 1+ goals Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Jun 21 $15 +$25 +165%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $25 +$12 +46%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $25 +$37 +146%
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $10 +$37 +365%
Takefusa Kubo: 1+ goals Jun 21 $9 −$8 -89%
Keito Nakamura: 1+ goals Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Ecuador (-3.5) Jun 21 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Ecuador (-4.5) Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 21 $10 +$11 +104%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 19 $27 +$15 +56%
Jonathan David: 1+ goals AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $41 +$46 +114%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 +$34 +67%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Spread: England (-1.5) AND Will Ghana win Jun 17 $41 −$24 -59%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: France (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina Jun 17 $22 +$159 +737%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 16 $69 −$26 -38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Uruguay (-3.5) BUY Uruguay 9¢ $6 20m
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals SELL Yes 37¢ $4 21m
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 22m
Will Bruno Fernandes be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 22m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $8 41m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Over 58¢ $30 41m
Spread: Uruguay (-2.5) BUY Uruguay 20¢ $10 44m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $25 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $25 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $13 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $10 2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $10 2h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $10 2h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 2h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $10 2h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $25 3h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 42¢ $5 3h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY Belgium 45¢ $5 3h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $5 3h
Mohamed Salah: 1+ goals BUY Yes 44¢ $5 4h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 4h
Federico Viñas: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $5 4h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 4h
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $5 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 4h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) AND Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-1. BUY 8¢ $15 14h
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Toronto Raptors in 2026-27? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 14h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Will Egypt win on BUY 14¢ $21 15h
Spread: Japan (-2.5) BUY Japan 21¢ $10 17h
Koki Ogawa: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $5 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $507.14 · official $510.95 (match) · 89 history records