Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T13:43:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DE
0xde67…c144
weather · 106 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$26 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$64 · open −$37
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$45
Realized+$64
Unrealized−$37
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses46 / 50
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions10
Markets (closed)96 / 106
History coverage8d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day40.7
Drawdown88%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 10 History 96 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days+$68
14 days+$64
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 13? Yes 35¢ 99¢ $14 $40 +$26 (+181%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Up 27¢ 48¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+80%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? Yes 36¢ 28¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-22%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? Yes 40¢ 42¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? Yes 22¢ 24¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? Yes 21¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 13? Yes 70¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 12? Yes 36¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 13? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Down 32¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $27 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 13 $2 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $9 −$8 -87%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $8 +$2 +28%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $5 −$2 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? Jun 13 $37 +$3 +8%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $5 +$28 +543%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $4 −$2 -38%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 +$14 +104%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $7 −$2 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C or below on June 5? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $9 −$4 -44%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 13? Jun 12 $15 −$9 -60%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winner Jun 12 $10 +$7 +73%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $20 $0 -2%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 2 Winner Jun 12 $27 +$3 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $9 +$27 +282%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 9? Jun 12 $19 +$8 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 7? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 7? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 9? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 9? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$3 +68%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 −$9 -83%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -46%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $19 +$31 +166%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 11 $15 −$13 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 −$4 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $20 +$26 +129%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 −$8 -79%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $44 +$1 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $56 +$5 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on June 10? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -82%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on June 10? Jun 09 $4 −$2 -46%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 60% −$16
crypto 24% +$31
sports 16% +$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 22¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 15m
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $33 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $1 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 31m
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 92¢ $10 59m
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 81¢ $10 1h
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 69¢ $7 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on June 14? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 1h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $10 4h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL KT Rolster 1¢ $0 4h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL KT Rolster 5¢ $1 4h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 35¢ $5 4h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY KT Rolster 38¢ $4 5h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner BUY Gen.G 78¢ $8 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 6h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner SELL Gen.G 99¢ $33 6h
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 15¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 33¢ $0 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 33¢ $2 7h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 13? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 +5.8% -4.2% 47% 38% -4.5%
≤30d 96 +5.8% -4.3% 48% 39% -5.4%
≤90d 96 +5.8% -4.3% 48% 39% -5.4%
all 96 +5.8% -4.3% 48% 39% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover40.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.3% 39% -5.4%
10% ← realistic here -13.4% 33% -14.5%
15% -21.8% 24% -22.7%
20% -29.5% 20% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.18 · official $44.62 (match) · 389 history records