Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:23:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
DE 0xde65…2129 crypto 50 markets active 2h ago coverage 528d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate73%36W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$51now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% +$2
other 27% $0
economics 11% $0
tech 6% $0
sports 4% $0
politics 2% $0
weather 1% $0
world 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 49 +0.0% -9.5% 73% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

528d coverage
Net worth$51
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses36 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)49 / 50
History coverage528d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 49 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $51 $51 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? May 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $130 in March? Apr 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? Apr 01 $26 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $900 in February? Mar 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? Mar 03 $35 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? Feb 02 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? Jan 01 $6 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? Jan 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in December? Jan 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Dec 03 $41 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? Nov 04 $15 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $30 +$1 +3%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? Oct 04 $23 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.50 in August? Sep 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $5.40 in August? Sep 02 $32 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? Aug 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? Aug 03 $36 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jul 04 $9 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? Jun 05 $6 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high in May? Jun 05 $12 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60k in April? May 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on China before May? May 01 $5 $0 +2%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 01 $6 $0 +0%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 01 $10 $0 +1%
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May? May 01 $11 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 20 $42 $0 -0%
Will Kirill Kaprizov win the Hart Trophy? Apr 15 $22 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 15 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will 'Thunderbolts*' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 09 $27 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by March 31? Apr 01 $7 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by March 31? Apr 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana hit $190 in March? Apr 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets finish with the worst regular season record? Mar 18 $45 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 18 $36 $0 -0%
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.39ºC in February 2025? Mar 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 03 $32 $0 +0%
Will Jarrett Allen lead the NBA in Rebounds? Feb 23 $34 $0 -0%
Will Google have the top AI model on January 31? Feb 20 $20 $0 +1%
Will Anita Anand be the next leader of the Canadian Liberal Party? Feb 18 $19 $0 -0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Jan 28 $7 $0 +0%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Jan 17 $9 −$1 -6%
Will the Chiefs win the AFC Championship? Jan 16 $18 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $51 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $16 28d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $30 31d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $7 61d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 99¢ $37 63d
Will Solana reach $130 in March? BUY No 100¢ $11 92d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in March? BUY No 100¢ $26 93d
Will BNB reach $900 in February? BUY No 100¢ $8 121d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in February? BUY No 100¢ $35 122d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $13 149d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $28 150d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in December? BUY No 100¢ $6 180d
Will Hyperliquid hit $100 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $10 181d
Will Hyperliquid reach $48 in December? BUY No 100¢ $34 182d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $41 211d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 100¢ $5 240d
Will Ethereum reach $5600 in October? BUY No 100¢ $15 241d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 97¢ $25 242d
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $13 273d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85K in September? BUY No 100¢ $23 273d
Will XRP reach $4.50 in August? BUY No 100¢ $8 302d
Will XRP reach $5.40 in August? BUY No 100¢ $32 303d
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $3 332d
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $11 333d
Will XRP dip to $2.0 in July? BUY No 100¢ $33 334d
Ethereum all time high by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $9 366d
Ethereum all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $9 395d
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $6 396d
Ethereum all time high in May? BUY No 100¢ $3 396d
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May? BUY No 100¢ $11 423d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.10 · official $51.10 (match) · 110 history records