Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T19:14:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

DE
0xde64…2541
crypto · 282 markets active 0h ago
3.5score
+$80 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$80 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2
Realized+$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses183 / 98
Open positions1
Markets (closed)281 / 282
History coverage122d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day3.1
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 281 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$33
7 days+$25
14 days+$63
30 days+$63
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 74¢ 74¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Up 36¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $13 −$2 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 13 $21 +$3 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $31 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 13 $12 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $11 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 13 $107 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 13 $6 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $3 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $21 +$2 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$5 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 12 $31 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $6 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 11 $21 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$2 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% +$78
politics 1% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $11 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $1 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $1 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $11 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $1 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 78¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 138 +4.4% -5.5% 66% 47% -6.7%
≤30d 182 +2.7% -7.1% 57% 43% -5.9%
≤90d 220 +1.8% -7.9% 62% 41% -7.5%
all 281 +0.1% -9.4% 65% 42% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 42% -6.8%
10% -18.1% 23% -15.8%
15% -26.0% 14% -23.9%
20% -33.3% 12% -31.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.73 · official $1.89 (match) · 673 history records